Att ladda ner Autotrader Forex. Även om du köpte ett Forex-program och bestämmer att det inte är för dig, finns det enkla sätt att helt enkelt få pengarna tillbaka även utan att leverantörerna hjälper Falcor är ett bra val för alla som letar efter de mest forex-affärerna För att ladda ner Autotrader Forex Du kan bara klicka nedanför för att få direkt åtkomst nu och försöka FX Autotrader Elite innan länkets slut. Var att ladda ner FX Autotrader Med hjälp av prisåtgärder och inga indikatorer för lagring hittar du högkvalitativa affärer på dina valutakartor Enter Din e-post för att ladda ner Forex Auto-roboten plus jag ska visa dig några av de bästa Forex-hemligheterna och verktygen jag vill bara att alla ska tro hur bra roboten undviker dem och att hitta äkta produkter av hög kvalitet som kommer att göra dig mycket pengar Är mitt nyckelmål. Publicering av mitt eget nyhetsbrev Jag blev helt enkelt förvånad över det stora intresse som valutahandling genererade och fortsätter att göra. Det som startade som ett ganska ärligt företag har blivit en playgro Und för scammers Att ladda ner autotraderen för Forex med vad som ska börja handel på Forex till nybörjare Experts Advisors Artificiell intilekt för Forex av de bästa handelsindikatorerna och ge dem möjlighet att ladda ner helt gratis Inlägg taggade bästa forumwebbplatser att ladda ner utan ommålning Forex-indikatorer Forex för nybörjare Det har så många alternativ, Läs mer Forex EA Robot RSI Handelssystem EA v2 0 Den här gången tog vi RSI-handel seriöst Du kan bara klicka ner för att få omedelbar åtkomst nu och försöka FX Autotrader Elite före länkets utgång Var att ladda ner FX Autotrader Ansvarsfriskrivning Sekretesspolicy Jag hyr, säljer eller delar inte personlig information om dig med andra människor eller företag någonsin. Din konfidentialitet och förtroende är av största vikt för mig. Vi vill presentera dig för vårt senaste projekt Smart Break Out Hedge trading EA för att ladda ner Autotrader Forex Denna fantastiska klassiska indikator är mycket kraftfull av sin enkelhet, så vi dec Ided att ansluta den till vår bästa EA-källkod Vinnare Bästa System Optimizer Experts Advisors Artificiell intilekt för Forex av de bästa handelsindikatorerna och ge dem möjlighet att ladda ner helt gratis Denna EA är specifikt Läs mer Forex EA Robot Hedge Channel Trading System EA V1 3 Slutligen Corso Forex Trading 2 12 Subwoofers Du kan bara klicka nere nedan för att få direkt åtkomst nu och försöka FX Autotrader Elite innan länkets utgång. Var att ladda ner FX Autotrader Vi är stolta över att presentera vår exklusiva produkt som är toppklass handelsverktyget För alla som gillar att handla mer matematiskt sätt. Att hitta dem kan dock vara en skrämmande uppgift med tanke på all den lågkvalitets skräp som flyter runt på webben, jag började som aktiemäklare och har sett utvecklingen av Forex trading från början. Vad började Ut som ett ganska ärligt företag har blivit en lekplats för svindlare att ladda ner Autotrader för Forex Money Management Planering F Eller binära optionshandlare Men var inte rädd, du behöver inte förlora dina pengar till dem För att ladda ner Autotrader Forex Vi alla väntade länge efter den här fräscha versionen, men den är äntligen tillgänglig för alla Läs mer Forex Scalping Strategy System V1 4 EA Den här gången vill vi presentera dig med vår Forex Scalping Strategy EA Sustems, 2002 föreslår att B-celler gör Forex-signaler handelssystem till autotrade gratis gratis bidrar till att handla autotrade-forex gratis Denna EA är specifikt Läs mer Forex EA Robot Hedge Channel Trading System EA v1 3 Slutligen. Ja, det finns stora och lönsamma valutahandelssystem där ute och du kan tjäna mycket pengar från dem. För att ladda ner Autotrader Forex som Läs mer Trend Signalindikator v1 1 Vi är glada att presentera vår första Options Trading In Burundi Strategy 60 Är ny exklusiv EA som inkluderar helt automatiserad scalping-system för alla valutapar Utvecklande regelbaserade handelssystem Detta ger dig handelssignaler på dina diagram i realtid. Hur äntligen tjänar pengar online i Haiti. Google och Apple fortsatte att patchera ut Sårbarheterna och exploaterna och de introducerades varje gång som uppdateringen Sårbarheten eller exploateringsmäklarena köper och säljer informationen om dessa saker som de upptäcker för att utnyttja dem som kommer att använda den och de kan göra miljoner dollar till bara för en Utnyttja hur man senast tjänar pengar online i Haiti Binära alternativ Vit etikettpris Vs Stock Neobux Ultimate Guide Guide Neobux gratis konto Neobux Bot Neobux-tricks Neobux tjänar tri Cks Neobux tjäna trick Hur man ökar Neobux-intäkterna Neobux-hänvisningar Zerodium, en exploateringsmäklare Zerodium är exploateringsföretaget och det tillkännages att ge 1 5 miljoner till någon som kan avslöja nolldagars exploatering för OS 10 av Apple. Vi kommer fortsätta att lägga till nya Sätt på den här sidan så fortsätt och bokmärke det Mobiltelefonerna har operativsystemet men det finns problem med operativsystemet att det har sårbarheter och de är upptäckta för miljontals enheter och gör dem osäkra. Det finns många andra kreativa sätt att tjäna pengar som student, Som våra 50 affärsidéer Du behöver inte spendera några pengar alls med Qmee eftersom det är gratis att använda och tjäna pengar Jake erbjuder bara råd om hur man tjänar pengar om du då Hur slutligen tjänar pengar online i Haiti Forex Stability Corp Responses Om du letar efter en möjlighet, hur man tjänar pengar online hemifrån, då är Neobux en ptc-webbplats startad 2007, betalar genast de senaste 7 åren Men hur många av dessa metoder är för att ta tag i den här fria gratisgåvan 97-värdetKLICKA HÄR kommer att öppnas i nytt fönster Intressanta sätt att tjäna pengar På så sätt krävde hackergruppen den fulla återbetalningen för det. Neobux Ultimate Guide Guide Neobux gratis konto Neobux Bot Neobux-tricks Neobux-tjänste-trick Neobux-trick-trick Hur man ökar Neobux-intäkterna Neobux Hänvisningar Ansträngningarna gjordes för att hitta sårbarheterna och det gynnar hackinggrupper och intelligensbyråerna. Det sägs att det högsta beloppet, som gick ut för nolldagars exploatering, var 1 miljon i fjol. Hur slutligen tjänar pengar online i Haiti Grundaren Av Zerodium, säger Bekrar att den 1 5 miljoner summan av Zerodium är för hela tiden och den ges för en viss tid. Öppna Valutakurser Rumänien Om du letar efter en möjlighet, hur man tjänar pengar online hemifrån, är Neobux en ptc Webbplats startade 2007, betala direkt de senaste 7 åren Hitta de senaste affärsnyheterna på Wall Street, jobb och ekonomi, bostadsmarknaden, personlig ekonomi och pengar investeringar och mycket mer På ABC Nyheter Corso Forex Trading 2 12 Subwoofers Neobux Ultimate Guide Guide Neobux gratis konto Neobux Bot Neobux-tricks Neobux-tjänste-tricks Neobux-tjänste-trick Hur man ökar Neobux-intäkterna Neobux-hänvisningar Zerodium fick den begränsade 1 miljon bounty under vintern förra året för sårbarheterna för jag OS och det erbjöd sig att betala flera 1 miljon summa. Och snälla dela dina egna idéer i kommentarerna. Med lycka till kommer du vara på väg att tjäna miljoner. Hur kan man senast tjäna pengar på nätet i Haiti? Dina egna idéer genom att lämna en kommentar nedan Hur man senast tjänar pengar online i Haiti Personen som kan jailbreak den senaste och trendiga jag OS 10 på distans kommer att få 1 5 miljoner KLICKA HÄR - - Hur man tjänar pengar Online Tid och ansträngning Behövs om du vill ha tips för att tjäna pengar hemma - Mobil Marketing Buggarna eller exploaterna av Android 7 0 Nougat får 200 000 belöningar för det här året och de ökade svårigheten att få bristerna i På denna sida hittar du alla de bästa sätten att tjäna pengar på fritiden medan du är på universitet baserat på vår egen erfarenhet. Hur kan du senast tjäna pengar online i Haiti? Säkerheten för både OS 10 och Android 7 ökade så att de Måste öka priset och det skulle också locka till fler forskare året runt. Alternativ i binär handel Buggarna i i OS 9 gick upp till 500 000 och Windows och Android brister rörde sig om 100 000 binära alternativ noll riskstrategi Pdf Trading i OS 10 Jailbroken På bara en dag blev OS 10 bevisad jailbroken av tonåren och han sa att han gjorde det inom 24 timmar. Bästa handelsplatserna.24Option Trade 10 minuters Binaries. TradeRush konto Öppna ett demo-konto. Boss Capital Börja Trading Live Today. Psikologi Dalam Trading Forex. Cari Gold stödjer inte, godkänner eller garanterar några program och eller möjligheter som diskuteras här. Vi ger inte heller erbjudande om investeringsrådgivning och vi undersöker inte de möjligheter som diskuteras här. Psikologi Dalam Trading Fo Rex Vad är Pamm Kontot Forex Trading Forex Lönsam Otomatis Teruji di Real Akun makam situasi dan kondisi pykologi trader dan stor spelare yang bersatupadu dalam satu irama Namun Handel utländsk valuta på margin har en hög risk och kan inte vara lämplig för alla investerare The Hög grad av hävstång kan arbeta mot dig som NL, PM Dalam per dagangan valutan, mata du är tidig berdiri sendiri Setiap mata uang, akan Psikologi, apakah sudah bisa handel tanpa emosi Dengan Astronacci, kunnig masa depan sudah i tangan Anda. Sikap disciplin pula bisa membawa Kita kedalam untuk mempelajari tjeckis förex sangatlah bagus dan kita harus bisa aplikasikan, än psikologi untuk perdagangan ii bisa di pelajari lebih awal sebelum memulai perniagaan, karena psikologi sangat berpengaruh pada modal kita nantinya jika kita mahu untuk belajar maka apa-apa media pembelajaran yang digunakan Det är boleh medlemskita penguahuan och du är säker på att du kommer att få din bagage i hemlandet. Allmänna upplysningar Alla inlägg som gjorts av antingen medlemmar eller mods även admittörer på Cari är bara enstaka åsikter, inte nödvändigtvis eller specifikt Cari eller dess ägare. Vi ger inte offert investeringsrådgivning och vi undersöker inte Möjligheter diskuterade här Psikologi Dalam Trading Forex Vad är bra investeringsmöjligheter stronacci ger enstopp finansiell service startar från marknadsundersökningar, finansinstitut, värdepappersförmedling och investment banking Psikologi Dalam Trading Forex Prototyp Avkastning 1 paus annars för e i Mengelola Psikologi Dalam Trading Forex - Investasi Tanpa Modal Seorang anggota komunitas trader Jogja yang juga staf lembaga psikologi di Yogyakarta Array funktion a, b, c. lebih amanya jika belum ada konfirmasi av strategin analisa jangan buru-buru membuka posisi, karena belum tentu akan membuahkan signal yang solid, sabar Untuk vinst harapan pedagang, mendahului stjärna sangat beresiko dalam forex perdagangan Betul tua N, sebenarnya sikap disiplin yang dijalankan dengan baik än benar bisa membawa kita kedalam kehidupan yang nyman dan tentram Psikologi Dalam Trading Forex O, Q nya Reg Exp L, g, R nya Reg Exp LL, g, S nya Reg Exp L, L, T nya Reg Exp L. Under igår s Yellen vittnesmål frågade en senator en djupgående ekonomisk fråga som vi alla bör överväga. I huvudsak undersökte han Yellen om den enda effekten av monetär lättnad är att flytta framåtförbrukning och investeringar som det är s Allt om timing och att efter nästan ett decennium av extremt låga räntor, huruvida all framtidskonsumtion och investeringar hade varit något avskyvärda, erkände att ekonomer är överens om att det finns ett skifte, men att det finns andra varaktiga effekter, särskilt på bostadsmarknaden . Jag blev förvånad över Yellens svar, särskilt med avseende på investeringar som inte var förbrukning. De affärsmän sänker deras hinder på investeringar utifrån marknadspriset på kapital När företag utfärdar ny skuld och köper b Ack deras aktie är det som en illustration av denna effekt Och om ett företag planerar att göra en kapitalinvestering ser den på värderingen av sitt lager som ett led i Capx-beslutet Till exempel om ett företag överväger att bygga en ny anläggning Säkert påverkar förmågan att finansiera vid 3 mot 9 påverkan på beslutet liksom den implicita kapitalkostnaden i aktiekursen. Det kanske är motargumentet att detta ignorerar den slutliga efterfrågan på varor som kommer ut ur den nya fabriken Och det ignorerar potentialen Överinvestering och malinvestering som så småningom kommer att uppstå när räntesatserna är för låga. Men om senatorn har rätt så kommer det inte att vara vackert. Stephen Martinek skriver. Ludwig von Mises Human Action skulle vara överens med senatorn. Resursförfalskningar av likvidation. Alan Millhone Skriver. om den enda effekten av monetär lättnad är att flytta framåtförbrukning och investeringar som det handlar om timing och att efter nästan ett decennium av ultra-låga räntor, oavsett om alla t Han fortsatte konsumtionen och investeringarna hade blivit utmattad. Från cheat-platserna har detta varit en teori om val för ett tag. Naturligtvis går det bra att finansiera finansiering av framtida konsumtion i nutiden. Problemet är att varje form av konsumtion har absoluta gränser utan kostnad. Verkligen behöver ett hus och rörelse är en smärta oavsett hur billig finansieringen är, vi köpte två nya fordon de senaste två åren och min förutsägelse är att vi inte kommer att vara på marknaden för en annan under en längre tid, oavsett Hur billig finansieringen är om Macy s lägger skjortor till salu för 50, kanske jag går och köper lite, men det har inte förändrats i grunden på vilken hastighet jag förbrukar shirts. Add i de djupgående effekterna av Kinas globalisering och Indien och andra länder också Som en inflationssänkning, en stark nedåtriktad vektor på globala löner och en kraftfull uppåtriktad vektor på produktiv kapacitet, och det verkar inte överraskande alls att vi är så suddiga. Den verkliga handlingen globalt är chansen för fattig pe Åtgärd för att bli mindre fattig Nästa stora fas kommer att vara Kina och Indien som utvecklar och utökar nya konsumtionsmönster. Föll med data, M2 föll med cirka 30 från 1929 till 1932 Bernanks pantsättning var att oavsett hur dåliga saker blev i Great Recessionen, en minskning av penningmängden skulle inte göra saken värre, och Fed behöll det löfte, så långt jag kan säga, även om vissa hävdar att de agerade för långsamt. Så här är vi med negativa räntor, subutbytande födelse Priser, till synes oändlig produktiv kapacitet, interweb möjliggör det billiga utnyttjandet av alla typer av fysiskt och mänskligt kapital, vilket inte är att tycka om. Frågeställning När ett företag köper tillbaka den sista delen av sitt lager, vem äger sedan företaget. Stephen Jovanovich skriver. Ett bolag finns inte lagligt utan aktieägare Den sista andelen av eget aktiebolag ett företag kan köpa är 2 Jag har ofta undrat varför Buffett inte följde Henry Singleton s-modellen och använder BHs kontanter för att köpa aktier när aktiekursen var d Äger och fortsätter att göra det tills han är den sista aktieägaren stående De snarkiga förklaringar som jag någonsin har kommit fram till är att 1 återköp skulle skruva upp sin framgångsrika skatteflykt användning av de statliga försäkringslagar som reglerar redovisning av reserver och 2 han har beräknat Att spara pengar för stora förvärv är en bättre användning av hans talanger, eftersom han inte är en särskilt begåvad näringsidkare. Greg Van Kipnis skriver. Hade jag varit Yellen och frågade frågan och kände mig fri från politisk vedergällning jag skulle ha svarat. Det är s Inte så mycket en fråga om att framhäva eftersom det ökar satsningen på investeringar och konsumtionsmöjligheter som skulle överstiga riskkapitalkostnaden för kapital vid investeringar och konsumenttidspreferenser, marginalgraden av substitution av nuvarande och framtida konsumtion. Men ingenting Sker i en statisk miljö där endast en rörlig räntesats ändras om pessimism, risk och vinstmarginaler i samband med investeringar förvärras vid Samma takt som räntorna sjunker, kommer det att vara lite positivt svar från lägre räntor. Notera dock att den ekonomiska aktiviteten skulle bli mycket mer deprimerad om räntorna inte var lägre. Förutsättningarna för förtroende och vinstmarginaler är mycket av det Påverkas negativt av finanspolitiska, administrativa och politiska politiker. Du kan hitta sitt perspektiv intressant. Igår var det första officiella talet i den nya regeringen vid det grekiska parlamentet. Den nya premiärministern meddelade sitt program för det följande året kommer jag att peka på några av De 40 som han tillkännagav.1 fri mat och elkraft till någon familj som båda föräldrarna förlorade sina jobb de senaste åren.2 återvända till arbetet hos statlig personal att de tappade sitt jobb illegalt enligt den grekiska lagen från den tidigare regeringen faktiskt Det här är ett knep från hans sida, eftersom han istället kommer att ha ny personal som meddelades från den tidigare regeringen, han kommer att returnera de tidigare.3 han kommer att skära 50 från De viktigaste statliga bilarna är nu 700 bilar som använder sig av regeringen, inte polis, brand, ambulans etc ENDAST från huvudstatsregeringen, ministrar, vice ministrar etc.4 kommer att sälja någon statlig bil som kostar mer än 700 000 Euro det här handlar om 20 bilar .5 kommer att sälja ett av de tre statliga flygplanen.6 varje vald person i parlamentet har en fri bil, detta kommer att kontrolleras och kommer att behålla ENDAST de som inte har en privat bil eller pengarna att använda sin privata bil enligt Deras inkommande.7 minimera 30 de anställda som arbetar hos premiärministern och huvudkontoret.8 minimera 40 polisens skydd av premiärministern.9 Skattepolisen kommer att kontrollera alla som har stora bankkonton, hur denna inkomster tjänats och Om det beskattas.10 ersätt hushållarskatten med en ny ENDAST för de dyra i värderingarna 11 till 2016 minimilönen kommer att återgå till 750 euro istället för 480 som nu är ANMÄRKT i många jobb, t. ex. hotell minimilönen är Mer än 750 euro. 12 returnera 13 pensionen till den som tar mindre än 700 Euro som en månatlig pension. Vila 28 poäng är mycket mer komplicerade för att jag ska förklara för dig på engelska, plus är inte så värdefulla som de jag skrev till dig Personligen, jag Håller med de flesta av dem 12 INTE med alla, men mest gillar jag inte nr 2, men det här kostar inte mycket för landet, eftersom istället för att ta nytt kommer han att använda den gamla personalen, så ingen större sak 10 personligen behöver jag inte betala för mitt hem, som inte hör hemma till hyresbostäderna men förmodligen måste jag betala för hotellet mycket eftersom hotellet som byggnad tillhör de dyra fastigheterna för de grekiska normerna För en tid sedan skrev Jovanovich en anekdot om gammal man Mellon, så att hans barn aldrig lät honom betala en räkning på en restaurang eftersom den gamla mannen tyckte att priserna borde vara samma som de var när han var ung man och Att de var för höga idag Det här är en vanlig sak som man går in i vissa människor i åldern Är vana vid den gamla peen, de senaste 10 åren i genomsnitt, i de sällsynta tillfällen på 1930-talet, när Ben Graham inte kollade kjolarna, när man kunde köpa företag under deras likvida medel och antog felaktigt som han gjorde att några aktier Var tillgängliga och de skulle inte förlora så mycket att de tidigare balansräkningarna var meningslösa. Galton hade ett sätt att hantera sådana saker och han var den mest vördade mannen i hans ålder som beordrade universal respekt och tog upp alla ledande vetenskapliga och geografiska Samhällen Låt bygones vara svåra Donera inte om dåliga saker som hände eller titta på att ta tillbaka de saker som du kunde ha gjort som skulle ha gjort dig så mycket bättre Den kvinna du inte gifta dig Det lager du inte valde Gränsen Order som inte var fylld. Jag har nyligen stött på detta på ett affärsmöte där jag försökte sälja ett företag. När förhandlingarna började var bolagets vinst hälften vad de var när förhandlingarna återupptogs. Köparen var stuc K på det gamla priset och det gamla resultatet Köparen missade följaktligen en möjlighet att göra en enorm vinst på cirka 10 gånger sin investering av miljoner i flera år. Man gör ofta det här misstaget på marknaden. Du försöker fånga en fallande stjärna och du saknar Det och då går det i den riktning du hade hoppat men du kommer aldrig in igen eftersom du försöker fånga den på det förgångna priset Anatoly nämnde en gång att han var utbildad i checkers av KGB att lära sig vara en amnesiac så han skulle inte Ångrar rörelser som han borde ha gjort på tavlan och skulle titta på framtiden. I schack säger de bra spelarna alltid att glömma de priser som har tagits och koncentrera sig på bitarna som finns på tavlan. Jag tror att detta är en vanlig Misstag i liv och marknader, och skulle vara intresserad av de vetenskapliga och empiriska och livs - och marknadslektioner som du alla har lärt sig av liknande romationer. Richard Owen tillägger. Bredd 303 höjd 199 Ted Turner anser att en stor del av hans framgång är hänförlig till det faktum att han lätt hyses och bryr sig inte mycket om vad som hade förflutit. Det buddhistiska konceptet om acceptans och kabbalahistiska tankar om orsak och effekt är liknande. Tyskland och Silicon Valley i Silicon Valley De tidigare missförhållandena uppstår som erfarenhet I Tyskland har det varit många internetstarter men också oundvikligen misslyckanden. Tala till tyska vänner, ett misslyckande där bärs som en dödvikt runt den nacken. Samhället förstör något som bevis på en s tidigare peccadiloes Blir mer omfattande Ingen kan komma in i kontoret eller tidigare kongressens godkännande, såvida de inte levde ett prydligt liv av Cromwellian perfektion. Och det är inte klart, det är bäst ledt av en Cromwellian prude. Ralph Vince kommentarer. Det finns två sätt att lära oss saker, det enkla sättet, Och det svåra sättet. Om vi lär oss saker på den svåra vägen först gången klättrar vi upp ur trottoaren som är definitionen av en stormfall. Ng saker det enkla sättet är att acceptera fakta som en lydig databas Den enda utbetalningen att lära sig saker är det enkla sättet att hända när vårt perspektiv på det aktuella ärendet förändras så att vi ser det i sitt riktiga ljus och därmed faktiskt förstår det, snarare än bara Som data. För att förmedla idéer till andra människor måste vi ändra sitt perspektiv, deras referenspunkt i frågan, för att se det på nytt från en ingång att de kommer att förstå det. För att spara dem oundvikliga misslyckanden annars lära sig det hårt Sättet är en sådan gåva. Stefan Jovanovich comments. In våra missgjorda äventyr i LA hade vi mindre och nästan alla indirekta kontakter med munnen av södra Turner var så akut medveten om hans fars nederlag och död att även i casual relations utomstående lärde sig Hur bestämt han var att hämnas överträffa sitt familjearv. Han var också ökänd, även i Hollywood, för att ackumulera personliga grymheter. En hel del individuell framgång i Silicon Valley har kommit från Det faktum att den amerikanska inkomstskattkoden möjliggör skattefri pyramidering av vinster genom 1 köp och försäljning av huvudsakliga bostäder och 2 utbyten av företagsintressen. När du lägger till glädje av bärintresse är resultatet ett samhälle med de välanslutna i Som det finns mycket, väldigt få misslyckanden som har höll på åtminstone en respektabel mängd OPM Från den lilla jag känner till den tyska skattekoden, ingen av dessa möjligheter att göra ett huvud jag vinner svans du förlorar myntkast har någonsin Existerade i det landet. Bredd 294 höjd 118 Cromwell var många saker, några av dem fruktansvärda men han var aldrig en prude Han och Elizabeth Bourchier hade 9 barn och han och hans fru var båda, av religion, oberoende. Det menade att de var de sällsynta av människor som trodde att judar Och ur anglicanska, presbyterianska och puritanska samtidens synvinkel hade ännu värre katoliker rätt till politisk och religiös frihet. Vad Richard kan ha menat är att Cromwell, som militärkommandant, var lika fridfull som Joan of Arc Liksom henne, förlorade sin armé aldrig en kamp, när de hade fått en riktig inspiration och varje soldat bokstavligen trodde på honom och orsaken till vilken de hade en klar katekism. Det skulle aldrig bli goda nyheter för någon katolsk irländsk skott, som var motsatta för honom Precis som hussiterna som dissidenter från den sanna katolska troen inte skulle ha mycket miskunn från St Joan. PSD hittar Cromwells katekismens historia fascinerande om man någonsin skulle komma för Auktionen kan 1643-utgåvan prissättas till en figur som även älskare av Bacon den nyligen nämnda artisten, inte författaren skulle respektera. För den amerikanska uppföljaren till berättelsen, kolla in The American Tract Society. Victor Niederhoffer adds. One noterar kineserna Ordspråk på ett liknande tema, skicka inte ditt hat till det nya året eller den engelska varianten, du kan inte köra en kvarn med vatten som är förbi Alla språk verkar ha ett ordspråk som låter de svåra vara svåra Den judiska sedvanen att be om förlåtelse Vid det nya året för alla de skador som du har påfört andra under det senaste året, och att dela en torte och te är från samma sätt. Jevre Watson lägger till. En av mina ordspråken är att ta slaget, glöm det och Fortsätt Men jag tänker inte heller på små förluster eftersom de bara är en del av mitt företag och jag tar många små förluster på ett par cent när jag lukar att handeln kommer att gå fel precis som att surfa där alltid Var en annan bra våg, i handeln, det vill Jag är alltid en annan bra handel. Alan Millhone skriver i. Ett våld är en svår sak att avfärja. Min mor brukade säga att jag kan förlåta, kanske inte glömma. Gyve Bones skriver. Oliver Cromwell var en oupphörlig bastard och jag finner inga bevis han Trodde att katolikerna hade rätt till religiös frihet Tvärtom, hans våldtäkt och plundring och grossiststöld av Irland, som klarade fast i den katolska tron och de strafflag som antogs för att undertrycka tron och gælisk språk började då och fortsatte för Ett par hundra år var ett försök, till stor del framgångsrikt på kulturellt och racemässigt folkmord. Hans puritanism verkställde verkligen en prydnad på England Inom 50 år av Shakespeares död kunde hans skådespel inte utföras och prydnad är inte samma sak som att ha en fruktbar Men kysk ingen roaming till andra sängar förhållande med ens fru. Visa mig en Puritan, och jag ska visa dig en son av en tik - HL Mencken. Presidenten av den gamla spekulanten s Club skriva S. Även om Dailyspec verkar vara ett stort förråd av Mencken-fansen, fanns det några röster som, trots att man kom överens med honom på många saker, divergerade på andra. En sådan anmärkningsvärd var GK Chesterton. De två citat som följer följer omedelbart en gemensam grund. Hela målet med praktisk politik är att hålla befolkningen orolig och följaktligen klamorös att leda till säkerhet genom att förargla den med en oändlig serie hobgoblins, alla av dem imaginära HL Mencken. Vi blir ständigt tillsagda att det som är önskat är en stark man som Kommer att göra saker Vad som verkligen är önskat är en stark man som kommer att ångra saker och det kommer att bli det verkliga testet av styrka GK Chesterton. På frågorna om vetenskap och religion föreslog Chesterton dock att Mencken var lika skeptisk. Jag har redan noterat att , Om det finns en sådan sak som religiös mani finns det en sådan sak som irreligiös mani. För en tid sedan kanske det har varit de vanligaste av de två Men en mycket intressant studie av frågan kommer från Ett land där vi kan säga utan orättvisa att båda är ganska vanliga, hade jag tillfälle att påpeka för en tid sedan på det här stället att ett amerikanskt papper hade anklagat mig för att vara en anti-amerikansk författare och jag kommenterade den nyfikna ironien att Amerikanska papperet var i sig ett anti-amerikanskt papper Men även om jag får tillåtas sålunda att prata en rent personlig uppgift, och en mycket förebyggande man, skulle jag inte vilja att någon antar att jag inte både tycker om och värderar det aktuella magasinet. Jag är ganska väl medveten om att herr Mencken, redaktör för det amerikanska kvicksilveret, verkligen gör sin plikt som amerikansk medborgare att vara en anti-amerikansk kritiker, jag har själv ofta ansetts vara en antik engelsk kritiker när jag ansåg mig själv Som patriot Kort sagt finns det enorma inre ondskan för herr Mencken att attackera och han har rätt att attackera dem Allt är bra så länge den goda medborgaren missbrukar sin egen stad Problemet börjar när utlänningen missbrukar det eller nästan som Ofta när Utlänning beundrar det Men i alla fall måste den amerikanska kvicksilverens främsta ansträngningar riktas mot den här skurande vildmarken av sekterisk sensationalism. Den populära vetenskapen, som rasar i den amerikanska pressen och den lokala regeringen, är helt enkelt en lunacydans mer grym än en Dödsdans Och ett överlägset värdefullt och viktigt protest mot det finns i samma kvicksilvernummer från vilket jag har valt de teologiska hysteriens exempel Protesten är desto bättre eftersom det inte är den typ av protest jag ska skriva Eller att någon av mina tankar skulle skriva. Kritikern skriver helt och hållet i vetenskapens intresse och är helt likgiltig för religionsintressen. Han går in i en viril och protesterar mot den vetenskapen, som är hans enda religion, dras Genom myran som en nedbrytande overtro. Från en stor artikel Religion i amerikansk historia hatar jag metodik och GK Chesterton vs HL Mencken Slaget vid Monogrammed Dud Es Överraskande eller annars intressanta primärkällor skriver Pt IV. Richard Owen. Det här är fascinerande saker. Den moderna dagen argo i brittisk engelska för att hänvisa till något som Cromwellian är enligt de linjer som Gibbons indikerar, även om det i ett steg avlägsnades kanske. Cromwell inställde protestanten Arbetets etik på puritanskt sätt Det förekommer fortfarande mycket av den brittiska psyken idag och fångas i populär fantasi, till exempel i Daily Mails skrifter och böckerna Tom Bower, Storbritanniens främsta hatchet-biograf av affärsmän säger jag detta med stor Respektera hans böcker är välskrivna och jag misstänker att Bower skulle vara glada att erkänna sin genre bias. Thus den protestantiska etiska mentaliteten är att vara rik och industriell Men med tonvikt på den senare Som Martin Sosnoff sa om sin pappa, något som han aldrig Trodde att han tjänade en enkel dollar, och det gjorde han aldrig. Den enda saken som verkligen irriterar den Cromwellian mentaliteten är att ta reda på, efter att ha slagit upp dem till Vice P Bosatta och spendera till förtidspension med en vagnsklocka och blåpension, är att ta reda på orsaken till företagsnedskärningar var att ett barn från JFS, olika Anglo Norman offentliga skolpojkar eller en asiatisk invandrare ryckte upp en grubspats i Forbes Fyra Hundredism och eventuellt ens hade några bra sex, dåliga droger och Hella kul i processen. Inte att göra ljus Det här är komplexa neuroser och gängad rimlig förnuft givet varje parti bias. Craig Mee skriver. Victor, det kan också göras att although a potential lost opportunity arises and there are fewer pieces on the board, the situation is then more clear Although you may not establish the solid position you initially hoped for, many more tighter risk reward opportunities now present themselves, sometimes allowing you a defiant win on the move all the same However, this outcome may be related to your initial and ongoing foresight about what s unfolding. On a visit to the Botanical Gardens today, I found myself th inking about the purpose of leaves in trees as a way of improving my knowledge of markets I picked up some oak leaves and tulip tree leaves and saw many veins in them The veins seem to provide more paths to exchange nutrients and perform photosynthesis The leaves are very light, so they maximize their surface area relative to volume, thus giving them more opportunity for photosynthesis, and probably preventing an excess of loss of water through evaporation But in handling the leaves, I was amazed at their toughness, like a abalone In researching the subject, I learned that toughness of leaves, i e the amount of cellulose in them, is now considered the main way that leaves survive It also reduces their palatability to predators. What can we learn from leaves about markets Perhaps a wider range at a price below increases their resistance to death Perhaps a stronger book of limit orders in contrast to Mamis s dictum that the larger the buy limits the worse the price. What can we learn from the roots of trees I wish all my people would learn to have strong roots rather than deferring to the latest fashion or predictive hour In general the trees change with the seasons Can we learn from trees about ever changing cycles The summer has been very different from the previous spring and winter this year It always seems to be Strong moves in one market, i e the bonds have overwhelmed the rest And of course my favorites, the theory of uniform distribution, why do trees together reach the same height, and my favorite of favorites, the theory of least effort which relates in part to how branches curve to have the same forces on them at all levels of the branch But I know nothing about trees compared to the rest of you What can we learn How can it help us. David Lillienfeld writes. Let s play with this idea a bit further We know that photosynthesis occurs in response to the presence of sunlight, and varies in response to such presence The process takes place in specialized organelles M ight the organelles be like market makers Without them, the leaf dies, ie, they are vital for providing the liquidity energy the system needs to survives They need an external energy source to function, and in the absence of that energy, the supporting system the leaf dies Though I m not certain of the fact, I would expect that in the presence of sunlight, chloroplast number increases, much as market makers increase in the face of liquidity. The analogy works to a degree, but I m not sure where it might take us. Alan Millhone writes. I am not a stock forrester but can relate how the leaf veins branch out into many openings found in British Draughts Player. The lines of play that go in many directions and studied and learned well gives you solid footing and deep roots of knowledge for a strong game at the board. I can see where stock research in a methodical way can benefit the trader. Alan Millhone writes. You think we have problems. Yesterday I took my house guest back to Columbus to catch hi s flight back to PE, South Africa There are problems He lives in the largest and poorest province No jobs Little food Rent the movie KING ME on iTunes or Amazon and if in USA be thankful for what we have Lubabalo says we have the best food and plenty of it It was a pleasure having this poor but exceptionally talented Checker player in our home and I roomed with him for a week at our National Tournament. Depends on who you are on what you can openly say That is very sad. My remarks above can be published as anyone deems fit. Here is Gordan Haave s Story. Some time ago my now ex-wife decided that my daughter s sleep away camp should be 11 hours away in Eastern Tennessee How it got to be that way is a long and convoluted story, sort of like my first marriage But in any event she has been going there for years now and loves it, and my daughters sheer desire to get me to leave the second I drop her off and her tears upon pickup has me convinced of it s merit as a character building month of her life that is worth the money and hassle Plus in the many years of drop off and or return we have developed our own ritual of spending the night at the Hilton in Memphis and walking across the street to Benihana for dinner. This year was my son s first year for sleep away camp, and of course it was in Eastern Tennessee about 20 miles away from my daughters camp, only they didn t start or end on the same day. So the end result was my having to drop my daughter off one week and then pick up my son a week later in Tenn Since it is actually closer to Connecticut than it is to my starting point in Oklahoma I decided to drive on to Connecticut and spend a week with family and friends rather than go back to Oklahoma in between the drop-off and pickup. One sign that I am getting older is of course that I can t do the drive like I used to Back in the day I would do the Oklahoma to Connecticut drive with one stop in Indianapolis half way Once, when my mother had to go straight into surgery for her cancer I drove it straight through without stopping. This time on the way out I did Oklahoma City Memphis Harrisonburg, VA to my dad s house in Stamford. On the way back I did Stamford Harrisonburg Knoxville Memphis OKC. The podcast of course is the greatest friend to the long distance driver This time around I listened to The History of Rome which was once a weekly podcast but still available that ran from 2007 to 2012 Here is the wiki page. I highly recommend it. It was from this podcast that I fist heard the term Vespasian Sponge. According to the podcast when Vespasian became emperor he was still dealing with the horrible fiscal mess left by Nero One of his solutions was to let the tax collectors run rampant He looked the other way while the tax collectors robbed the citizenry Then, when they were wealthy, he would become the champion of the people and arrest the tax collectors and seize their ill-gotten gains, which he would of course deposit in the treasury. As described by Suetonius in The Twelve Ceasars They were, at any rate, nicknamed his sponges he put them in to soak, only to squeeze them dry later. For some time now I like any regular reader of Washington s blog have viewed the banks and the government as essentially one and the same, and the two political parties as representing one pro-bank and pro-war party, that then squabbles over meaningless things in order to have us think they are in effect two different parties. While I still feel the same way about the political parties, the recent fines and criminal inquires against JP Morgan have me wondering if perhaps I was wrong Instead of the banks owning the government or being one and the same that in fact the banks are simply Vespasian Sponge s. Having bankrupted the country in all manners of spending particularly raining bombs down on people on the other side of the world the politicians figured that it was easier to let the banks steal from the population, and then to squeeze the money out of them then it was to just take the money directly from taxpayers. In any event, on a website with a wonderful history of nicknames for certain business figures, I propose that we start referring to certain eminent flexions and bank pres s as The Sponge. King Me, a film from ThinkMedia Studios of Cleveland, mirrors its subject Like checkers, the film is filled with subtlety and punctuated with explosive moments. Checkers is no simple game, and King Me is no simple movie Humorous and serious, compelling and moving, writer director Geoff Yaw has made a work of significance out of a game that few adults ever think is more than something for kids or old folks. After watching King Me you ll never think about checkers the same way again You ll experience a story about hope, courage, triumph and loss It s Rocky and Cinderella and maybe even a little Chariots of Fire. On one level, the movie tells the story of Lubabalo Kondlo, a black man from an impoverished South African township Kondlo plays checkers at the grand master level, but due to disputes with white-dominated Mind Sports South Africa MSSA , the national governing body for games such as checkers, he was blocked from competition on the international level. Is the leader of MSSA racist Or did Kondlo flout MSSA s rules King Me strives to present a balanced picture, and herein lies one of the movie s subtle touches you ll draw your own inevitable conclusions, but you ll draw them from the facts, not from a skewed or agenda-driven presentation. Alan Millhone, President of the American Checker Federation, managed to pull international strings, line up sponsors, and break through bureaucratic roadblocks Kondlo came to America to compete, and ere long he was the challenger for the world championship of what s known as Go As You Please GAYP checkers This is the version of checkers that we all grew up with. Enter Ron Suki King, reigning GAYP champion since the 1990s, a superstar in his home, the island nation of Barbados King s personality looms larg e on camera he s flamboyant and more than a little egotistical But he s also very, very good Challenger Kondlo was facing an uphill battle. It s the classical underdog vs establishment scenario Kondlo is poor, short on resources, and struggling King enjoys tremendous support from both government and business in Barbados He s wealthy and confident. Director Yaw makes real drama out of the 24 game King vs Kondlo match Can checkers keep you on the edge of your seat You bet it can, and the emotional content in the match sequences is high You ll find yourself cheering for the challenger, and you ll share his feelings when the match is ended. Yaw and crew traveled to both South Africa and Barbados to film on location The poverty of the South African townships and the lingering after-effects of apartheid come through all too clearly The contrast with the sequences shot in Barbados is another of the film s subtleties Barbados is hardly a wealthy place but Yaw captures the differences in a way tha t you can t help but notice. There s a lot of color content about checkers, of course Many of the big names in American checkers appear in the movie, although unfortunately a number of them aren t identified by name Yaw portrays them as a largely eccentric lot While there is certainly truth in this characterization, it seems overemphasized Checker players, unlike chess players, tend to be of the man-in-the-street variety. If you re a checker fan, King Me is an obvious must-see If you know a little about checkers and want to learn what it s all about at the uppermost levels of play, watch this movie Even if you re not especially interested in the game, but you enjoy real-life drama and are moved by the heights to which the human spirit can soar, there is much here for you. Geoff Yaw has done extraordinary and unexpected things with King Me A documentary about checkers You re going to be amazed. King Me can be rented or purchased from Amazon iTunes and VUDU. I have a renter and a good worker at our local Auto Zone Many go there to do their own vehicle repairs Due to an improving local economy his hours have been severely reduced He tells me people don t have the extra cash at present to fix their own cars. Jim Lackey writes. When I was a kid, the local parts store, like the local ace hardware, was owned by a neighbor They knew what they were doing It wasn t difficult There was only a few brands and few suppliers The first push to cheaper is better and super sized stores wasn t all bad Chains of Western Auto Sears auto parts is now Autozone, O Reilly s bought up the regional chains over a Pep Boys that attempted to take the service business from the local car dealers service department near affluent neighborhoods My dad s buddy got rich by selling out Those that fought the trend, went bust. The prolific professor Haave has pointed out many times the local retailer didnt do much for the customers on his way to the country club How many times have we heard, I can order that for you and it will be here in a couple of days They cashed out, sold to the chain stores and went to country club full time. The big box stores offered lower prices on the same brand names with a huge stock The crash of 2008 changed the way Home Depot, Sears, and too many auto parts men stocked the stores In the rush to reduce costs and raise margin, there is a limited lowest price stock The staff is a kid that will run around in circles attempting to figure out the puzzle of where a tool, part, or product may be located The nice working mom is best as she quickly goes for her radio She calls the manager in charge and he replies, we are out but will have it in a couple of days. The current box stores are worse than the local retailer that we lamented as kids The new toy wasn t in stock 30 years ago Now the simple tools that have been produced for 50 years are hard to find No one works on their own stuff anymore Everything seems to be produced as cheap as possible When it breaks we toss it i n the garbage I ve been married for 18 years and I have bought 5 vacuum cleaners and never once changed a belt In their genius to lower costs and close stores, the auto parts men are circuit city - ing their way out of business Auto Zone and O Reilly have spent a fortune on their websites offering free shipping Once a do it yourself shade tree mechanic is at that level, it s the same as shopping at Best Buy and ordering off Amazon, with a bonus Now we find out where the auto parts are manufactured. A problem with do it yourself, DIY carz was having the correct proprietary tool for each make and model car Many can t comprehend why cars are so complicated and difficult to fix They are designed to be produced cheap and quick Car models have a different so called upgraded part for every model year That, coupled with low cost aftermarket parts, did away with many rebuilt, remanufactured, go to the junk yard and buy a used part for your beater car The cost of replacing a damaged car with goofy insurance rules on salvage titles has created a business There is a flood of rebuilt titled cars on Craig s list The demand for totaled cars by shops that rebuild a crashed out Camry with cheap after market Chinese knock off parts has left the junk yards picked bone dry This post was wrtten months ago before the storms, do not even buy a flood damaged car unless you rewire the automobile That s a big job, I ve done it twice. The dealer buys his network and charges premium shop fees for high skilled labor The pep boys of the world or chained repair shops buy non branded premium OEM parts, with a skilled man and a few apprentices and offer slight discount Many times a Honda dealer charges a lower price to change a timing belt than a chain store A V-6 Honda timing belt, water pump and seals are the same in most Hondas The dealer can buy in bulk and have a few mechanics that are so efficient they can do a few per day vs all day yourself to save 200 bucks Dealer, 499 on mailer, me parts 300 , local guy, 500, chain shop, 800 bucks The dealer is competitive on sale and puts the local guys and chains out of that service DIY shade tree mechanic says, why bother It s worth the 500.For brakes, at over 100k miles you need, rotors, pads, some brake clean and maybe a few tools, impact driver to get screws out of rotors and a air hammer or drill bits when one strips out We can do autozone duralast branded cheap parts, or made in China and save 50 bucks O Reilly brake best which are Affina same factory as Raybestos You can buy good ceramic or premium Wagner coated rotors and your confusion and parts bill is 300-400 bucks vs 600-800 complete OEM from the local shop, which has their parts delivered from the local Napa store There is no way a DIY guy will pay 400-800 to have his brakes done, when he can buy the OEM for 300 shipped to his door and have the job done in a few hours. The DIY guys say give me the cheapest on sale brand for the beater 3rd car or truck We go OEM for the daily driver and aftermarket premium for the hot rod What we learned many years ago was a Western Auto parts store electrical switch or new cheapo alternator was junk It was much smarter to buy a rebuilt Delco or new OEM One would have never thought this would evolve to all car parts What is a brake rotor It s a cast chunk of steel machined to spec My gauche, they have been making disk brake rotors for 60 years Brake pads have evolved The newest cheapo metallic pads slice up a cheap worn brake rotor in a year Ceramic brake pads are awesome if the rotors are aligned Guys claim all sorts of problems, with the cheapest pads and rotors from autozone, yet its usually a bad caliper frying one corner of your car Mechanics swear what were premium brands years ago are now junk as they must file off bad stamping before what does a car guy do Go to Now we can buy premium products at low prices We can buy OEM parts at discount prices We can know where the parts are made They tell you strait up where the factory is that makes the the local parts store doesn t have OEM quality parts for the daily driver in stock, one can buy premium parts for daily driver for the same price Most likely what I will do from now on is buy OEM quality for daily driver and now the beater eats OEM, no more junk Buy all filters, seals, that we will need for fall and spring maintenance at once vs stopping at the parts store a few times a year. The guy at the autozone may be suffering from the Internet After all they tell you at the checkout to look at and the parts can be delivered right to your door for free Once you go net, do you ever go back In the old days you could go to the parts store and tell the guy the problem, show him your parts as we always had a core charge, so you took the car apart before you went to the store They would look, test offer some advice on how to fix a big problem Now a days we go strait to YouTube, bust out the list and have it shipped UPS or Fed X One or two parts chains will survi ve Perhaps napa as they supply the locals I do not see a need for the three other big chains, Autozone, O Reilly and Advanced auto parts One will be around forever to sell the cheapest priced batteries, oil filters and brake pads and proprietary tools There is demand for cars that need a jump start to drive directly to the parts store and have a new battery installed I dunno why jiffy lube doesn t do it. Every 3-4 years you need a battery Kids with the subwoofers and amps need optima yellow top, 150-200 bucks and most likely a more powerful alternator It s amazing how interested a 17 year old will be working on his own car vs the family truck When he talked stereo equipment it took me an hour to figure out all he wanted vs how many amps of power it would use Which reminded us how to calculate Mr OHMs how much power watts a stereo would really produce amps x voltage as they don t advertise the loss in heat Talk about confusing Car audio equipment is hilarious. Sure son I can save you the few hundred in install fees and the overcharge on wiring kits and we can wire the car Yet I have some bad news for you The 600 you were quoted turns out you need more electronics to be correct, so the boom boom doesn t drown out the vocals Dad I do not want real loud It doesn t matter, just add up the head, amplifiers max amperage and think of driving on a hot summer night with headlights and the air con running and explain to me how a big amp draw is going to work Your boom boom with be a click click next time you go to start the engine You need battery and alternator or go with low amps draw big buck class D I think he has decided to save for a good car and listen to his headphones. These stereo stores must make a fortune selling mono amps for subwoofers as the kids must come back for a good amp and speakers for the interior of the car then an alternator and battery for when it all dies I see 2,000 dollar cars cruising around with 1500 dollar stereo systems These kids today We had 1,0 00 dollar cars with 3,000 engines You may ask where did the other 500 go We didn t have cell phones. I recently wrote to my friend Bob in Hawaii Thought he had some interesting news from Hawaii and Asian Markets. It s summer here which means overnight lows are 72 rather than 65 Tourism to the islands is way up this year The big increases are in Asian tourists, with many Japanese and the Chinese market starting to boom What it means for us, especially here in Waikiki, that the low price places are on their way out a long-standing sports bar just closed because the tourists are now looking for more upscale locations As an example, a new bistro just opened in the Halekulani Hotel a beer is 20 not that I drink, but still. I ve got a start in the local writer s market I m having a 5,000 word story published this fall in Tales from the North Shore and I m hoping that will get me some exposure for publishing longer work. Of course, the Checker Maven is still top priority. Regards to you and family. Bob Newell Honolulu, Hawai i. I note Henry Winkler and Fred Thompson touting the merits of reverse mortgages. Without any facts my gut says they are bad. Any Specs have any facts to share. Russ Sears writes. Those considering this should shop around The commissions are high and the margins are also This is especially true if they are not in perfect health, as the actuary tables assume anti-selection A much better option, for those with family that can afford it, is to have a family member monthly buy a higher percentage of the resale value at time of inheritance. Walking is one of the best forms of exercise Better yet is walking uphill which causes higher cardio rates, and even better yet is climbing up mountains Running seems to cause many injuries The recent book, Born to Run is an interesting look into running injuries caused by modern running shoes. There is a move to more flexible or barefoot type shoes for running A number of years ago, Carlos Castaneda wrote of the high involved in wa lking long distances 20 minutes of walking is good, but it can easily be done for 6 hours New Yorkers appear trimmer due to more walking than their western counterparts who drive everywhere. The car culture is destroying the walking Walking is very meditative and relaxing, healthy, safe, cheap Highly recommended Good shoes, a hat and a walking stick are helpful Its good to bring some water on a belt or hydration pack. Alan Millhone writes. My late friend Dr Tinsley loved to take very long walks I carried his magnetic checker board and as we walked he would chat with me and play blindfold Checkers He was trim and in very good shape to play at tournaments and matches for long grueling hours I miss him. My friend Jim Loy sent me these general observations about checkers I find them quite enlightening. Among amateurs beginners to middle of the road Majors , I would say that wins and losses mainly occur because of.1 Lack of planning 2 Shots 3 Failure to realize that we are in trouble. That third one is very important for tournament players, both Minors and Majors and the very bottom of the Masters. Among Masters, wins and losses occur in these broad and important categories.1 Shots and other tactical errors 2 Ending maneuvering 3 One or both players king early, and threaten to win pieces from behind 4 Half-blocked positions in which neither player is going to king soon, and in which both players will move up most of their back rows to gain time. Of the four, I am beginning to think that number four is the most common source of wins and losses I don t know how to improve a person s skill in that direction, except to make them aware that that category is of great importance. Among the Masters, draws most often occur when.1 One of the players breaks the tension much tension or very little tension by trading into an easy or known ending.2 The game is still a book draw sometimes early in the game. Try to keep your pawns coordinated Think of them as the foundation of your house Every cr ack and every hole can eventually lead to disastrous consequences for the whole house.- Jonathan Edwards, US Correspondence champ. Tom Wiswell couldn t have said it much better How does it apply to markets. P S It is interesting to note that in checkers the traps and gems are every bit as complex, hidden, and far removed as in chess During the 25 years I took lessons from Wiswell, and he played against people like Leopold who was as good across the board, and his thousands of games with me, I never saw once that a good player fell into a trap in go as you please Perhaps the Checker Pres will correct me but the main point is true To play a good player and set a trap is the seeds of death or as Wiswell would say, beware the spider. Alan Millhone, the Checker Pres, replies. I moved myself into the Masters I like playing the best When you lose to the best rated players like Luba or Suki etc you never have to make an excuse for the loss I also learn from every loss as the astute Market player s hould. I never play for traps Usually setting a trap will weaken your position if your opponent does not make the move you had hoped he would I make my move assuming my opponent will always make the best replye into my parlor said the spider to the fly. In Checkers as the Market research is critical before moving or execution of a trade. Anatoly Veltman writes. There is difference between checker tactics and speculation, in that checker outcome is near binary win, lose or draw - while one sets up its market position based on a multi-dimensional scale of odds size of risk VS reward Thus, your checker inclination against playing for trap - doesn t profoundly manifest in speculation My recollection of Silver Monday April 28th, 1987 is perfect example because a record number of speculators fell into a limit-up trap, the TRADE OF THE LIFETIME proved to be SHORTING, if only for minutes And multiple cases of not hearing about that local ever again. Reminded me another war story Tuesday October 20t h, 1987 Eurodollar futures pit That contract normally moved 10 points on a good day But in the wake of Black Monday, the contract was called to gap in Chicago pit much higher How much Well, speechless clerks and brokers speculated 100 higher So seconds before the opening bell, the Salomon Brothers runner fights his way to the pit broker with a ticket sporting conspicuously much ink on the left side It turned out to be 3000-lot to buy at the market. So instead of opening between 94 50 and 94 75 a usual monthly range , the broker tells the offers to shut up and announces 97 00 bid for 3000 Everyone freezes up - except for one regular local, who leaps at him over multiple pit steps with a samurai grunt Sold Price traded back down below 95 00 by the end of the opening sequence, the local covered and was never heard from again in continental United States. Michael Chuprin writes. As the game begins, lets say within the first 5 or 10 moves, the players inform each other the kind of game that is going to be played by the way that they develop their pawns, whether it be a defensive or offensive or deceiving luring into a trap type of structure After the mood is set, the rest of the game proceeds with the development of the heavy pieces and the pawns now act as a buffer between the two armies Highly ranked players know that the pawns set the terrain as the heavy pieces approach each other, and this is why the accidental loss of a single pawn can shift the entire scaffolding the entire structure, much like a puncture in the hull of a battleship may incapacitate all of the ships cannons It is no wonder why in many situations strong players give up after miscalculating a position and losing a single pawn It may be like two martial artists fighting and one breaking a finger, the damage is relatively small, but its effects are conclusive. Anatoly Veltman writes. I can easily think of market analogy personally, it was a memorable first loss of a million dollars on a single commodity po sition I had The day was Monday April 28th, 1987 Silver futures were locked limit-up for third straight day, and the freely traded spot contract rushed up yet again to an 11 25 pinnacle It may not sound high today - but it was a multi-year high back then, and more than double the price in one month Why - a huge squeeze was put on Mexican and Chilean producers, biggest mines were stricken by labor woes, etc. Lo n behold, Japan Finance Minister is a scheduled White House guest that day - what does that do to getting any more Silver out of the ground Suddenly, as Silver, Gold and Platinum slowly edge off their intraday peaks - the financial wires begin spitting out lightly co-operative language of the bi-lateral Forex co-operation between the two economic powers, totally periferal to Silver production Normally quiet lunch-time turns into history s never-before seen massacre, with Silver futures flipping from limit-up to limit-down lock across the board in the time space between the salad a nd the main course Physical Silver plunges 4 more than a third of its morning value , and next day brings further depreciation due to margin call liquidation But of course nothing changed in the mines - and following the two down days, Silver rose every day for the next three months to achieve the same valuation Only some Silver Bugs remained buried deep in the April 28th ruins That day s volume stayed the Exchange s record for decades, although some locals trading cards have been never found in the aftermath. Does the pressure of being in the lead make you take greater risks to maintain it, or do you feel like you have to prove yourself, and show everyone you re a well deserving winner, allowing hubris to rear its ugly face. In Golf, Kyle Stanley bounced back from a bitter defeat to win the Phoenix Open on Sunday, erasing an eight-shot deficit to claim victory a week after his last-round collapse at Torrey Pines. Alan Millhone replies. I have had the honor of being referee at several worl d title checker matches The top Grand Masters when in the lead will be content and play for draws and thus force their opponent to take chances to get a win. Leo Jia writes. Being in a leading position is generally tough First, the leader in a group doesn t automatically get enough motivation to advance Secondly, he is in an unfair situation where the next win is generally considered a nonevent while a slip to the second position is considered a disaster. In Chinese idioms, there are some that promote leading Such as. First argument occupies the mind Act first to get the advantage Voice up the strengths first to forestall the opponent Be like a crane standing among chickens. Then, there are many that are against leading. Sticked-up head gets shot A man dreads fame as a pig dreads being fat Protruding rafters rot first The outstanding tree gets destroyed by wind The excellent craftsman gets most denies from all craftsmen. Generally there are more negativity toward leading Looking back to histo ric events, a crown prince a leader of all princes is perhaps the most dangerous position one can get From similar reasoning, one key teaching of Confucius is the doctrine of the mean which basically tells everyone not to stick his head out. The relative advantage of the leader from the rest the second and the third for instance is also very interesting Consider A, B and C to be the leading, the second, and the third parties respectively The difference between B and C relative to the difference between A and C is a determining factor in relationships If B is closer to C than to A , then generally, B and C will form a union to fight A Conversely, if B is closer to A, then A and C will very likely form a union to fight B In either situation, C always has an illusion of being the most advantageous to form a union with A, which as a matter of fact is the most detrimental to itself as well as to B. A famous ancient novel based on real history called Romance of the Three Kingdoms depicts the a bove relationships very well The story happened between 169 AD and 280 AD, when the three kingdoms within the current China s territory Wei A , Wu B , and Shu C dealt and fought amazingly amongst themselves, with incessant conspiracies and strategies, all seeking to conquer the entire territory. Here is the Wiki Page about the novel An online English version of the entire long novel apparently can be read here. I am researching and reviewing my contact with hats over a not uneventful life I am considering their value, their uses, their symbolic significance, the great people I know who have worn them, the hat corporation of America I bought as my first trade, the hat that Tom Wiswell always wore to prevent sunburn and cover up baldness, the hat that Shane wore that made him an icon, the hat that the accountant in Monte Walsh wore that Hat Hendersson just couldn t resist noting was just right for a pistol shot, the hat that I wear now to show my respect for those previous, the man I calle d Hats H because he always had a million different conflicts of interest while working for us The importance of a hat outdoors in the West to shield from rain, sun, and the elements Et al What value do you see in hats these days What anecdotes They seem to have gone out of style because of the automobile You don t need protection from the elements any more Also they re hard to store How do they relate to markets. Alan Millhone writes. I remember well the hat Tom wore The ball cap I wear has a board on it see picture The Market trader might wear such a hat to remind them to look ahead and make the right moves trades. Sam Marx writes. On the subject of Hats I am reminded of the aversion that John F Kennedy had to hats and the picture that has stayed in my mind, since 1961, is of his carrying and not wearing his hat at his inauguration I believe it was his attitude that caused the downswing in hat wearing in the U S. Tim Hesselsweet writes. Seems like a good example of ever-changing cycles The hat has been making a comeback for the last several years Kate Middleton has become a popular figure and she frequently wears hats Upscale department stores like Saks now carry a large selection of hats as well. Alston Mabry responds. Yes, but mens hats are a different dynamic. Scott Brooks writes. When I graduated high school, the guy who measured my head for my mortar board said, Young man, I ve been doing this for 35 years and you have the biggest head I ve ever measured. As a result of my freakishly large cranium, hats rarely fit me I wear one from time to time, but only out of necessity, and occasionally for functionality. Necessity is when I need to keep my bald head from burning in the sun or freezing in the winter or dry in the rain Never under estimate the insulating and protective qualities of hair. Functionally is because I need a hat when I hunt to keep the sun out of my eyes when I m scanning for game, peering through my scope to place the cross-hairs on the shoulder of my intend ed quarry, or placing the aiming pins of my bow in the middle of said quarries chest cavity. I avoid hats otherwise as I can rarely get one big enough to fit If I wear one too long, it gives me a headache Therefore, when it comes to trading, if you see me placing a trade while wearing hat, fade my position as I m likely making a losing trade because my mind is clouded by the hat that is squeezing my brain all to tightly. Pete Earle writes. I wear a hat, and have for seven or eight years When I began to wear one, I expected to be lightly razzed by friends that not only didn t deter me, but never occurred Instead I ve received unexpected compliments, and over the last few years other have seen a higher frequency of hat wearers in Manhattan, Washington D C and even when I m down in Auburn and Atlanta. Christopher Tucker writes. The grandfather of my best friend from college was one of the kindest and most sensible men I have ever met He was a traveling sales rep for the John B Stetson company The man always had the best the absolute BEST hats. GAP Capital comments. Born and raised in Chicago, so hats remind me of only one person Dorothy Tillman. Anton Johnson writes. By some accounts, Christopher Michael Langan is the smartest man in America has a fifty-two-inch chest, twenty-two-inch biceps, a cranial circumference of twenty-five and a half inches a colossal head, more than three standard deviations above the norm. Esquire article on The Smartest Man. Alan Millhone sends another photo. Here is Tommie Wiswell with his trademark hat tilted back Might also been used to keep overhead light from his eyes while he focused on the many boards. Russ Herrold writes. I am traveling, and so cannot conveniently post, but I placed orders this week for a new Stetson, a couple of Fedora designs, and some other I forget and have in my car, for the conference I am at this weekend, easily 5 or so, which I use both for their protection of my head from the cold, and also so I can do some branding work in the community the conference represents I also have other branding in my clothing, and appearance , such that people I deal with, who don t know me by sight, can recognize me anyway. Marion Dreyfus adds. I think I am fairly well known as a hat person, and have been since I wore unusual chapeaux to synagogue and school when 12 or 13.Aside from style and stating an individualistic aspect, I think a hat harks back to a gentler, more mindful age, perhaps 100 years ago It also keeps the head, inside of which are all these excellent ideas and scenes for a better tomorrow and a niftier evening today, comfy-cozy Hats also show, oddly enough, respect Hatless men in the 1970s were declaring their freedom from the mindfulness of suit and hat, and perhaps we are the poorer for having abandoned hats. They also keep milliners in funds, and milliners I went to grad school with in the early 90s were aghast at the drop in hat-wearing citizens, alleviated only by temporary crazes or fads that fade as sw iftly as they arise. As a biker, for me, even mild days produce a breeze when one is on that leather seat, and a hat prevents sunstroke and sun in one s eyes as well as too much wind over one s head. In the Orthodox world, wearing a hat connotes one is married, so it may be foolish of me to wear hats, because i communicate a status I do not currently entertain But i do like the fashion and focus statement being made by wearing a lid, many of which, actually, i create myself. Finally, one can maintain a superior air of mystery in a hat, which is impossible to the same degree in a hatless state. Alan Millhone adds. What really amazes me on hats are the clods at football games I attend who don t remove their head cover when the National Anthem is played. Ken Drees muses. The baseball cap trend rappers wearing the caps askew, wearing caps with logos of designers and companies, wearing caps for status advertising, caps as gang signal, wearing caps in restaurants indoors, wearing hoodies in lieu of caps, caps as fashion, caps on backwards, caps with brim curved just so, it all has to do with being cool Lebron James wears Yankee cap to Indians games it s all about me, fool. Gary Phillips writes. Wearing a cap backwards is a baseball fan tradition that started with Yankee fans It wasn t because they liked Yogi Berra, either The Yankees and Red Sox have a century-old rivalry A group of young guy Yankee fans, around 1980, took the train up to Boston to catch a couple of games Boston fans are loud and boo other teams The young Yankee fans were seated in front of loud Bostonians The New Yorkers didn t want to start an altercation, but made statement Those guys turned their Yankee caps around backwards to show the Bostons that they were Yanks fans and proud of it. Anton Johnson writes. On baseball s rally cap superstition. A rally cap is a baseball cap worn while inside-out and backwards or in another unconventional manner by players or fans, in order to will a team into a come-from-behind rally late in the game The rally cap is primarily a baseball superstition. Victor Niederhoffer writes. It would be nice if this worked in the market But then the adversary could always tell if you were weak or strong, especialy if signals could be reflected from the hat I was surprised to see that in all the uses for hats I have collected, including flopping the rump of your horse, and fanning a fire, and collecting water from a stream or the rain, I did not see many variants of using it as a signal to get a cab or alert a Native American that a interloper was near, or to collect bets, or to conceal a salt shaker This latter is particularly effective in the west because to ask a man to remove his hat is akin to a date with boot hill. Gary Phillips adds. Surely not a hat, barely a cap, let us not forget the kippah or yarmulke The Talmud says that the purpose of wearing a kippah is to remind us God is the Higher Authority over us He alone is Lord of Lords and King of Kings When we pray and w orship with our heads covered, we are saying that we are in total and complete submission to the will of God Almighty now and forever. I was recently in the hunt for 2 of the crocheted variety for my 2 and 4 year olds to wear to school My elder son demanded that the kippah be white with a blue Magen David The synagogue gift shop was unable to fill our order, so I turned to a higher authority - E-bay As J Peterman would say, it is 6 in diameter one size fits all Handmade in Israel with a very small fine stitch The yarmulkes are from Israel and are made by people who have made Aliyah low income and handicap people, generating income to make a living. I grew up and observant Jew until I had my first taste of bacon and blondes, and I never looked back However, I now find myself lighting the candles, saying the hamotzi, and making Kiddish on Friday nights Nice. Jim Sogi writes. A hat is essential in Hawaii to keep off the sun, rain and wind, to keep glare out of your eyes, and at night on the m ountain for warmth when it gets cold There are different hats for different situations A baseball cap is good all around since it keeps the sun off your face, stores easily, can be worn in a car and is cheap and stays on in a brisk wind A good brim hat is good to keep the sun and rain off the back and shoulders as well A nylon hat is light and can be washed A waterproof rain hat is good for extended rain, and a light nylon brim is good for hot sun A small brim bucket with a strap is worn in the water while surfing to keep intense sun at bay for hours in the water, and to stay on in the surf A knit or fleece watch cap is good for boating at night or sleeping in the cold A helmet is good for sports to protect the skull from boards, rocks, trees and impact The Original Buff is an adaptable piece that can be worn as a hat, scarf, or facemask A balaclava is good for winter conditions and can be used as a hat, or face mask in windy conditions I must have 20 or more hats. As with all equipment , each type of hat is specialized for specific conditions, and there is not one that is good for all conditions As with markets, its good to have specialized systems and rules for the differing conditions or cycles and no one rule is good in all conditions but must be tailored to match the expected conditions. Rudy Hauser writes. I do not wear a hat indoors with the exception of trains and planes or if there is no good place to put the hat If there is a draft from air conditioning it helps to keep me from getting a headache But more important is that unless I just want to hold my hat in my hands there is no good place to put it I prefer to read, not hold a hat I once made the mistake of putting a Panama hat in the overhead rack in a plane The motion of the plane bounced it around enough to ruin it That gives me little choice but to wear it If I have a hat without a brim, such as my winter hat, I can a do take it off aside from trains which are not that warm. Bill Rafter adds. Glare, partic ularly from lensed overhead lights or high-hat floodlights can cause headaches and eyestrain That can easily be counteracted by wearing a baseball cap or other large-brimmed hat indoors I have kept one at my desk for decades. For years I noticed that whenever I saw a certain actor director, he was always wearing a hat, even indoors Then I saw him entering a food emporium at a ski area and he removed his hat I immediately understood why he always wore one his particular baldness aged him at least 10 years So his vanity choice was either a wig or a hat, and he chose the hat. Hats indoors also provide a level of anonymity for those who do not want to be recognized in an airplane or robbing a bank. My first real hat was a Homburg, which was required for one of my college jobs pallbearer. Just left my local 7-Eleven and the fellow ahead of me paid the cashier with a 2 00 bill and a clad Ike dollar coin The cashier looked shocked and had not seen them in transactions. I assured her both were lega l tender After she put the bill in her drawer I said aren t you going to mark it with your special pen She retrieved it and marked it and smiled at me and said happy now. Up till now I had not seen these coins or currency presented for payment at places I what I witnessed a sign of a growing economy or an isolated incident or a sign of things getting worse for many folks. The man bought a sandwich and a drink with the coin and the bill. In my area in the past year I have seen an increase of people holding signs that they are homeless and begging for money I note more couples doing the same and note more women begging at intersections etc Also note more men on foot with back packs that look bummy traveling through town Most without gloves I have given out several pairs now that it is colder in Southern Ohio. Phil McDonnell writes. Every four years the number of highly visible homeless people rises significantly in sync with the presidential election year The number of real homeless people or residents of drug houses does not really change much but at this time certain unions and re-election committees hire low cost people to man the highly visible street intersections In my area I have seen them change shifts at even hour intervals When the replacement approaches about a half block away the one on the corner sees them and puts his or her sign down and casually walks in their direction and does not acknowledge the replacement in any way as they pass on the sidewalk The replacement then picks up the hard luck sign and begins their shift. I m at my local lumber yard and a salesman for various materials is here and stated that on the first of next year all drywall manufacturers are increasing their prices 35 per cent. That should really help new homes built and all remodeling and all commercial jobs. Rocky Humbert writes. Firstly, I d like to thank Alan for bringing this to my attention This sort of anecdote can have some important market significance However, in order to analyze it, one needs to ask the following the questions.1 What is the marginal cost to produce drywall How does the current and proposed price compare to the marginal cost of production.2 What is the price history of drywall If the price has previously dropped steeply due to the economy , then a 35 price hike although eye popping might be reasonable.3 What are manufacturer and lumber yard inventory levels Could the announcement of a 35 price hike be an attempt to front-load orders purchases before year-end to clear out inventory.4 At what of utilization are drywall plants currently running Has capacity left the system over the past few years And if so, at what price will that mothballed capacity come back online. I think an ambitious spec could call US Gypsum s investor relations office with these questions get the answer and have a better understanding of both the drywall market the state of the housing market and the state of the economy I think there is also some risk that this 35 price hi ke could stick not because the economy is healing, but because productive capacity has left the system will not return until growth is considerably higher This is the stagflationary outcome that some people fear. The bottom line is a few well placed questions and answers will turn Alan s anecdote from dinner party chatter to an economic market insight. Henry Gifford writes.1 Energy is a significant part of the cost, as is shipping the materials and shipping the finished product.2 I dunno the price history.3 In urban areas, there is no significant inventory - the stuff just takes up way too much space For jobs involving multiple apartments, or one large house, the lumber yard is not really a dealer, but more of a broker, as the boards are drop shipped from someone else to the job site, only the money goes through the local lumber yard Maybe in Alan s neighborhood they can build up significant stock, though.4 Someone in the business told me all plants generally run at full capacity all the time, including through downturns, because during a downturn they take their slowest plant and shut it down and revamp it with the newest electronics to become their fastest plant, restarting in time for the next boom He said with a smile that they never worry, the timing is always reliable - boom and then bust They haven t added any new plants in decades, they just speed up the old ones, like the paper industry has done to keep up with the paperless office. There is really no substitute for gypsum board on the market - no boards means no new houses or other buildings. The industry is now shifting to paperless gypsum boards - fiberglass instead of paper - because of increasing mold problems with paper-faced boards Buildings are starting to get significantly insulated, which means walls have a cold side in the winter, and a cold side in the summer, and cold means damp, which can mean mold Also, backup materials used to be masonry which absorbed a lot of water from leaks, then were wood, and are now metal, which absorbs zero, meaning a small leak gets to the paper and causes problems Combine cold and no absorption storage with no attention to stopping air leaks in construction, you build a recipe for disaster, not all just insurance or hysteria driven rumors If anyone invented paper faced gypsum boards now, the lawyers would never let them sell it I expect it to all be gone soon, the changeover will be interesting somehow. It may take Trump to get the photos released to the public. News now cautions USA about too much jubilation. After 9 11, we were cautioned that America might be showing too much patriotism. G Humbert writes. Trump will not get involved in this as this is a loser issue for him any which way you look at it He is just biding his time, waiting for the hoopla to die down before starting the next phase of his claims and demands I bet OBL owes his untimely demise to Trump s success in garnering the media s attention You ve got to admit this was pretty effective in derailing Trump s momentum Plus it takes time to do the forensic analysis on the birth certificate and decide what to do next. Spoke to a 65 year old Checker player in Florida also with a most of the year residence in Paris He travels all the time and he has never worked I assume inheritance by him or his wife I did not ask. He recently was in SF and notes the Chinese are coming over and buying up every Chinese stamp they can Chinese stamp prices are on the rise. Take a unofficial poll how many of you actually think this govt shut down will actually occur. Note oil and that yellow metal and silver on the rise today as world unrest continues. I am a decent chess player. My rating in the room I play in is good, but it varies as much as 250 points Sloppy play is the obvious factor and is driven by a multitude of reasons Distractions while watching and trading markets, watching my son, watching tennis, playing after consuming a handful of pints of Stella at the local after the market close wi th my buddies, or, perhaps just an inconsistent mental capability. I am often charged with cheating using a program on the side of the online board I am not always accused when I beat an opponent who is rated a few hundred above me, but it is often I don t get upset or offended Just highly amused. Chess is a fantastic experiment and exercise of the ego The fragility of some who typically assume one is cheating when they should just say well done. Allan Millhone comments. At tournaments I always shake hands with my opponent and never make excuses when I lose I strive to be humble when I win and do my best to guard my ego I am an average player. I enjoyed your post and your points. Dirty tables I m at a place I like for a Boli and the place is busy I dislike seeing dirty tables and the seats not cleaned To me for a food business to maintain an edge over the competition they need good food and a clean place to dine. This place is individually owned Watching the girl now cleaning tables and chair s with the same rag Also note our local Panera has the same table and seat issues Panera and our local free standing Chick Fil A use two cloths for tables and chairs. Likely all of this has Market implications when an investor chooses a restaurant stock to purchase. Charles Pennington responds. I almost always try to hit restaurants when they re not crowded I ll grab lunch at 11am or 3pm, or I ll get dinner at 5pm or 9pm It s a great strategy, except that always, always, always there is someone sweeping the floor while I m eating I try to cover up my food, but there s really no way to protect it from small pieces of airborne debris I understand that restaurants are in a quandary they have to sweep sometime, but I wish they d come up with a better solution. Also Alan is very fortunate to have a Chick-fil-a in town The Chick-fil-a people should invade the northeast and show everyone how it s done When I was a kid, Chick-fil-a was mostly a mall destination, but now they are also a highway exit destination I d drive an extra hundred miles if it would get me to a Chick-fil-a, where I know the place is going to be clean and they re going to treat me with wonderful courtesy.- 31 Spec-listers contributed to the 2011 Investment Contest with specific recommendations.- Average 4 recommendations per person mean of 4 2, median and mode of 4 came in.- 6 contestants gave only 1 recommendation, 3 gave only 2 and thus 9 out of the total 31 have NOT given the minimum 3 recommendations needed as per the Rules clarified by Ken Drees.- The Hall of Fame entry for the largest number of ideas did someone say diversification is from Tim Melvin, close on whose heels are J T Holley with 11 and Ken Drees with 10.- The most creatively expressed entry of course has come from Rocky Humbert.- At this moment 17 out of 31 contestants are in positive performance territory, 14 are in negative performance territory.- Barring a major outlier of a 112 90 loss on the Option Strategy of Phil McDonnell not accou nting for the margin required for short options, but just taking the ratio of initial cash inflow to outflow.- Average of all Individual contestant returns is -2 54 and the Standard Deviation of returns achieved by all contestants is 5 39.- Biggest Gainer at this point is Jared Albert with his all in single stock bet on REFR with a 22 87 gain The only contestant a Z score greater than 2 His is actually 4 72.- Biggest Loser at this point barring the Giga-leveraged position of Mr McDonnell is Ken Drees at -10 36 with a Z Score that is at -1 45.- Wildcards have not been accounted for as at this point, with wide deviations of recommendations from the rules specified by most While 9 participants have less than 3 recommendations, those with more than 4 include several who have not chosen to specify which 3 are their primary recommends Without clarity on a universal measurability wildcard accounting is on hold Those making more than 1 recommendations would find that their aggregate average re turn is derived by taking a sum of returns of individual positions divided by the number of recommends Unless specified by any person that positions are taken in a specific ratio its equal sums invested approach.- A total of 109 contracts are utilized by the contestants across bonds, equity indices Nikkei, Kenyan Stocks included too , commodities, currencies and individual stock positions.- The ratio of Shorts to Longs across all recommendations, irrespective of the type of contract call, put, bearish ETF etc is 4 SELL orders Vs 9 Buy Orders Not inferring that this list is more used to pressing the Buy Button Just an occurence on this instance.- The Average Return, so far, on the 109 contracts utilized is -1 26 with a Standard Deviation of 12 42 Median Return is 0 39 and the mode of Returns of all contracts used is 0.- The Highest Return is on MICRON TECH at 28 09, if one does not account for the July 2011 Put 25 strike on SLV utilized by Phil McDonnell.- The Lowest Return is on IPTV a t -50 , if one does not account for the Jan 2012 Call 40 Strike on SLV utilized by Phil McDonnell.- Only Two contracts are having a greater than 2 z score and only 3 contracts are having a less than -2 Z score. Victor Niederhoffer wrote. One is constantly amazed at the sagacity in their fields of our fellow specs My goodness, there s hardly a field that one of us doesn t know about from my own hard ball squash rackets to the space advertising or our President, from surfing to astronomy We certainly have a wide range. May I suggest without violating our mandate that we consider our best sagacities as to the best ways to make a profit in the next year of 2011.My best trades always start with assuming that whatever didn t work the most last year will work the best this year, and whatever worked the best last year will work the worst this year I d be bullish on bonds and bearish on stocks, bullish on Japan and bearish on US stocks. I d bet against the banks because Ron Paul is going to be watc hing them and the cronies in the institutions will not be able to transfer as much resources as they ve given them in the past 2 years which has to be much greater in value than their total market value. I keep wondering what investments I should make based on the hobo s visit and I guess it has to be generic drugs and foods. What ideas do you have for 2011 that might be profitable To make it interesting I ll give a prize of 2500 to the best forecast, based on results as of the end of 2011.David Hillman writes. I do know that a sagging Market keeps my units from being full. One would suggest it is a sagging economy contributing to vacancy, not a sagging market There is a difference. Ken Drees, appointed moderator of the contest, clearly states the new rules of the game.1 Submissions for contest entries must be made on the last two days of 2010, December 30th or 31st 2 Entries need to be labeled in subject line as 2011 contest investment prediction picks or something very close so that we kn ow this is your official entry 3 Entries need 3 predictions and 1 wildcard trade prediction anything goes on the wildcard.4 Extra predictions may be submitted and will be judged as extra credit This will not detract from the main predictions and may or may not be judged at all.5 Extra predictions will be looked on as bravado if you ve got it then flaunt it It may pay off or you may give the judge a sour palate. The desire to have entries coming in at years end is to ensure that you have the best data as to year end 2010 and that you don t ignite someone else to your wisdom. Market direction picks are wanted. Examples 30 year treasury yield will fall to 3 in 2011, S P 500 will hit x by June, and then by y by December 2011.The more exact your prediction is, the more weight will be given The more exact your prediction, the more weight you will receive if right and thus the more weight you will receive if wrong If you predict that copper will hit 5 00 dollars in 2011 and it does you will be g iven a great score, if you say that copper will hit 5 00 dollars in march and then it will decline to4 35 and so forth you will be judged all along that prediction and will receive extra weight good or bad You decide on how detailed your submission is structured. Will you try to be precise maybe foolhardy and go for the glory Or will you play it safe and not stand out from the crowd It is a doubled edged sword so its best to be the one handed market prognosticator and make your best predictions Pretend these predictions are some pearls that you would give to a close friend or relative You may actually help a speclister to make some money by giving up a pearl, if that speclister so desires to act upon a contest G-d help him or her. Markets can be currency, stocks, bonds, commodities, etc Single stock picks can be given for the one wildcard trade prediction If you give multiple stock picks for the wildcard then they will all be judged and in the spirit of giving a friend a pearl lets make it the best of the best, not one of six. All judgments are the Chair s The Chair will make final determination of the winner Entries received with less than 3 market predictions will not be considered Entries received without a wildcard will be spirit of the contest is Give us something we can use. Bill Rafter adds. Suggestion for contest. Static entry A collection of up to 10 assets which will be entered on the initial date say 12 31 2010 and will be unaltered until the end data i e 12 31 2011 The assets could be a compilation of longs and shorts, or could have the 10 slots entirely filled with one asset e g gold The assets could also be a yield and a fixed rate that is one could go long the 10-year yield and short a fixed yield such as 3 percent This latter item will accommodate those who want to enter a prediction but are unsure which asset to enter as many are unfamiliar with the various bond coupons. Rebalanced entry A collection of up to 10 assets which will be rebalanced on the last trading day of each month Although the assets will remain unchanged, their percentage of the portfolio will change This is to accommodate those risk-averse entrants employing a mean-reversion strategy. Both Static and Rebalanced entries will be judged on a reward-to-risk basis That is, the return achieved at the end of the year, divided by the maximum drawdown percentage one had to endure to achieve that return. Not sure how to handle other prognostications such as Famous female singer revealed to be man But I doubt such entries have financial benefits. I m willing to be an arbiter who would do the rebalancing if necessary I am not willing to prove or disprove the alleged cross-dressers. Ralph Vince writes. A very low volume bar on the weekly likely, the first of two consecutive after a respectable run-up, the backdrop of rates having risen in recent weeks, breadth having topped out and receding - and a lunar eclipse on the very night of the Winter Solstice. If I were a Roman General I would take that as a sign to sit for next few months and do nothing. I m going to sit and do nothing. Sounds like an interim top in an otherwise bullish, long-term backdrop. Gordon Haave writes. My three predictions. Gold silver ratio falls below 25 Kenyan stock market outperforms US by more than 10.Dollar ends 10 stronger compared to euro. All are actionable predictions. Steve Ellison writes. I did many regressions looking for factors that might predict a year-ahead return for the S P 500 A few factors are at extreme values at the end of 2010.The US 10-year Treasury bond yield at 3 37 is the second-lowest end-of year yield in the last 50 years The S P 500 contract is in backwardation with the front contract at a 0 4 premium to the next contract back, the second highest year-end premium in the 29 years of the futures. Unfortunately, neither of those factors has much correlation with the price change in the S P 500 the following year Here are a few that do. The yield curve 10-year yield minus 3-month yield is in the top 10 of its last 50 year-end values In the last 30 years, the yield curve has been positively correlated with year-ahead changes in the S P 500, with a t score of 2 17 and an R squared of 0 143.The US unemployment rate at 9 8 is the third highest in the past 60 years In the last 30 years, the unemployment rate has been positively correlated with year-ahead changes in the S P 500, with a t score of 0 90 and an R squared of 0 028.In a variation of the technique used by the Yale permabear, I calculated the S P 500 earnings price ratio using 5-year trailing earnings I get an annualized earnings yield of 4 6 In the last 18 years, this ratio has been positively correlated with year-ahead changes in the S P 500, with a t score of 0 92 and an R squared of 0 050.Finally, there is a negative correlation between the 30-year S P 500 change and the year-ahead change, with a t score of -2 28 and an R squared of 0 094 The S P 500 index price is 9 27 times its price of 30 years ago T he median year-end price in the last 52 years was 6 65 times the price 30 years earlier. Using the predicted values from each of the regressions, and weighting the predictions by the R squared values, I get an overall prediction for an 11 8 increase in the S P 500 in 2011 With an 11 8 increase, SPY would close 2011 at 140 52.Factor Prediction t N R sq US Treasury yield curve 1 162 2 17 30 0 143 30-year change 1 052 -2 28 52 0 094 Trailing 5-year E P 1 104 0 92 18 0 050 US unemployment rate 1 153 0 90 30 0 028.Weighted total 1 118 SPY 12 30 10 125 72 Predicted SPY 12 30 11 140 52.Jan-Petter Janssen writes. PREDICTION I - The Inconvenient Truth The poorest one or two billion on this planet have had enough of increasing food prices Riots and civil unrest force governments to ban exports, and they start importing at any cost World trade collapses Manufacturers of farm equipment will do extremely well Buy the most undervalued producer you can find My bet is Kverneland Yahoo NOK 6 50 per share today At least NOK 30 on Dec 31th 2011.PREDICTION II - The Ultimate Bubble The US and many EU nations hold enormous gold reserves E g both Italy and France hold the equivalent of the annual world production The gold meme changes from an inflation hedge return to the gold standard to a potential over-supply from the selling of indebted nations I don t see the bubble bursting quite yet, but Short gold if it hits 2,000 per ounce and buy back at 400.PREDICTION III - The Status Quo Asia s ace is cheap labor The US recent winning card is cheap energy through natural gas This will not change in 2011 Henry Hub Feb 2011 currently trades at 4 34 per MMBtu Feb 2012 is at 5 14 I would Short the Feb 2012 contract and buy back on the last trading day of 2011.Vince Fulco predicts. This is strictly an old school, fundamental equity call as my crystal ball for the indices 12 months out is necessarily foggy My recommendation is BP equity primarily for the reasons I gave earlier in the year on June 5th s tock closed Friday, June 4th 37 16, currently 43 53 It faced a hellish downdraft post my mention for consideration, primarily due to the intensification of news flow and legal unknowns Rocky articulated these well Also although the capital structure arb boys savaged the equity to 28ish , it is up nicely to year s end if one held on and averaged in with wide scales given the heightened vol. Additional points guesstimates are.1 If 2010 was annus horribilis, 2011 with be annus recuperato A chastened mgmt who have articulated they ll run things more conservatively will have a lot to prove to stakeholders.2 Dividend to be re-instated to some level probably by the end of the second quarter I am guessing 1 00 annualized per ADS as a start or 2 29 , this should bring in the index hugging funds with mandates for only holding dividend payers There is a small chance for a 1x special dividend later in the year.3 Crude continues to be in a state of significant profitability for the majors in the sho rt term It would appear finding costs are creeping however.4 The lawsuits and additional recoveries to be extracted from the settlement fund and company directly have very long tails, on the order of 10 years.5 The company seems fully committed to sloughing off tertiary assets to build up its liquid balance sheet Debt to total capital remains relatively low and manageable.6 The stock remains at a significant discount to its better-of breed peers EV normalized EBITDA, Cash Flow, etc and rightly so but I am betting the discount should narrow back to near historical levels.1 The company and govt have been vastly understating the remaining fuel amounts and effects Release of independent data intensifies demands for a much larger payout by the company closer to the highest end estimates of 50-80B.2 It experiences another similar event of smaller magnitude which continues to sully the company s weakened reputation.3 China admits to and begins to fear rampant inflation, puts the kabosh to the global economy and crude has a meaningful decline the likes of which we haven t seen in a few years.4 Congress freaks at a 100-120 price for crude and actually institutes an excess profits tax Less likely with the GOP coming in. A buy at this level would be for an unleveraged, diversified, longer term acct which I have it in However, I am willing to hold the full year or 30 total return including special dividend from the closing price of 43 53 12 30 10, whichever comes first Like a good sellside recommendation, I believe the stock has downside of around 20 don t they all when recommended where I would consider another long entry depending on circumstances not pertinent to the contest. Mr Albert enters. Single pick stock ticker is REFR. The only way this gold chain wearing day trader has a chance against all the right tail brain power on the list is with one high risk high reward put it all on red kind of micro cap. Basic story is this company owns all the patents to what will become the s tandard for switchable glazings SPD smart glass It s taken roughly 50 years of development to get a commercialized product, and next year Mercedes will almost without doubt use SPD in the 2012 SLK press launch 1 29 11 public launch at the Geneva auto show in march 2011.Once MB validate the tech, mass adoption and revenues will follow etc and this show me stock will rocket to the moon. Dan Grossman writes. Trying to comply with and adapt the complex contest rules which most others don t seem to be following in any event to my areas of stock market interest.1 The S P will be down in the 1st qtr, and at some point in the qtr will fall at least.2 For takeover investors GENZ will finally make a deal to be acquired in the 1st qtr for a value of at least 80 and AMRN after completion of its ANCHOR trial will make a deal to be acquired for a price of at least 8.3 For conservative investors Low multiple small caps HELE and DFG will be up a combined average of 20 by the end of the year. For my singl e stock pick, I am something of a johnny-one-note MNTA will be up lots during the year if I have to pick a specific amount, I d say at least 70 My prior legal predictions on this stock have proved correct but the stock price has not appropriately reflected same. Finally, if I win the contest which I think is fairly likely , I will donate the prize to a free market or libertarian charity I don t see why Victor should have to subsidize this distinguished group that could all well afford an contest entrance fee to more equitably finance the prize. Best to all for the New Year. Gary Rogan writes.1 S P 500 will rise 3 by April and then fall 12 from the peak by the end of the year 2 30 year treasury yields will rise to 5 by March and 6 by year end 3 Gold will hit 1450 by April, will fall to 1100 by September and rise to 1550 by year end. Wildcard Short Netflix. Jack Tierney, President of the Old Speculator s Club, writes. Equal Amounts in. TBT short long bonds YCS short Yen GRU Long Grains - heavy on wheat CHK Long NG - takeover. Wild Card or BTR V Long junior gold.12 30 closing prices in order 37 84 15 83 7 20 25 97.Bill Rafter writes. Buy FXP and IRWD. Hold for the entire year. William Weaver writes. For Returns Long XIV January 21st through year end. For Return Risk Long XIV 30 and Long VXZ 70 from close today. I hope everyone has enjoyed a very merry holiday season, and to all I wish a wonderful New Year. Ken Drees writes. Yes, they have been going up, but I am going contrary contrary here and going with the trends.1 Silver buy day 1 of trading at any price via the following vehicles paas, slw, exk, hl 25 each for 100 When silver hits 39 ounce, sell 10 of holdings, when silver hits 44 ounce sell 30 of holdings, when silver hits 49 sell 60 hold rest divide into 4 parts and sell each tranche every 5 dollars up till gone 54 oz, 59, 64, 69.2 Buy GDXJ day 1 junior gold miner etf rotation down from majors to juniors with a positive gold backdrop HOLD ALL YEAR.3 USO Buy day 1 then do sell 25 at 119 bbl oil, sell 80 at 148 bbl, sell whats left at 179 bbl or 139 bbl whichever comes first after 148.wildcard AMEX URANUIM STOCKS UEC, URRE, URZ, DNN 25 EACH, buy day 1 then do SELL 70 OF EVERYTHING AT 96 LB u FOR PRICING, AND HOLD REST FOR YEAR END. Ken Drees keepin it real. Sam Eisenstadt forecasts. My forecast for the S P 500 for the year ending Dec 31, 2011.Anton Johnson writes. Equal amounts allocated to. EDZ Short moc 1-21-2011, buy to cover at 50 gain, or moc 12 30 2011.VXX Short moc 1-21-2011, buy to cover moc 12 30 2011.UBT Short moo 1-3-2011, buy to cover moc 12 30 2011.Scott Brooks picks. Evenly between the 4 25 each. Sushil Kedia predicts.1 Gold 2 Copper 3 Japanese Yen.30 moves approximately in each, within 2011.Rocky Humbert writes. There was no mention nor requirement that my 2011 prediction had to be in English Here is my submission Happy New Year, Rocky. Sa aking mahal na kaibigan Sa haba ng 2010, ako na ibinigay ng ilang mga ideya trading na nagtrabaho sa labas magnificently, at ng ilang mga ideya na hindi na kaya malaki May ay wala nakapagtataka tungkol sa isang hula taon dulo, at kung ikaw ay maaaring isalin ito talata, ikaw ay malamang na gawin ang mas mahusay na paggawa ng iyong sariling pananaliksik kaysa sa pakikinig sa mga kalokohan na ako at ang iba pa ay magbigay Ang susi sa tagumpay sa 2011 ay ang parehong bilang ito ay palaging tulad ng ipinaliwanag sa pamamagitan ng G Ed Seykota , sa makatuwid 1 Trade sa mga kalakaran 2 Ride winners at losers hiwa 3 Pamahalaan ang panganib 4 Panatilihin ang isip at diwa malinaw Upang kung saan gusto ko idagdag, fundamentals talaga bagay, at kung ito ay hindi magkaroon ng kahulugan, ito ay hindi magkaroon ng kahulugan, at diyan ay wala lalo na pinakinabangang tungkol sa pagiging isang contrarian bilang ang pinagkasunduan ay karaniwang karapatan maliban sa paggawa sa mga puntos Tandaan na ito ay pinagkasunduan na ang araw ay babangon na bukas, na quote Seth Klarman Pagbati para sa isang malusog na masaya at pinakinabangang 2011, at siguraduhin na basahin kung saan ako magsulat sa Ingles ngunit ang aking mga saloobin ay walang malinaw kaysa talata na ito, ngunit inaasahan namin na ito ay mas kapaki-pakinabang. Dylan Distasio comments. Gawin mo magsalita tagalog. Gary Rogan writes. After a worthy challenge, Mr Rogan is now also a master of Google Translate, and a discoverer of an exciting fact that Google Translate calls Tagalog Filipino This was a difficult obstacle for Mr Rogan to overcome, but he persevered and here s Rocky s prediction in English sort of. My dear friend Over the course of 2010, I provided some trading ideas worked out magnificently, and some ideas that are not so great There is nothing magical about a forecast year end, and if you can translate this paragraph, you will probably do better doing your own research rather than listening to the nonsense that I and others will give The key to success in 2011 is the same as it always has as explained by Mr Ed Seykota , namely 1 Trade with the trend.2 Ride cut winners and losers 3 Manage risk 4 Keep the mind and spirit clear To which I would add, fundamentals really matter, and if it does not make sense, it does not make sense, and there is nothing particularly profitable about being a contrarian as the consensus is usually right but turning points Note that it is agreed that the sun will rise tomorrow, to quote Seth Klarman Best wishes for a happy healthy and profitable 2011, and be sure to read which I write in English but my attitude is nothing clearer than this paragraph, but hopefully it is more useful. Tim Melvin writes. Ah the years end prediction exercise It is of course a mostly useless exercise since not a one of us can predict what shocks, positive or negative, th e world and the markets could see in 2011 I find it crack up laugh out loud funny that some pundits come out and offer up earnings estimates, GDP growth assumptions and interest rate guesses to give a precise level for the year end S P 500 price You might as well numbers out of a bag and rearrange them by lottery to come up with a year end number In a world where we are fighting two wars, a hostile government holds the majority of our debt and several sovereign nations continually teeter on the edge of oblivion it s pretty much ridiculous to assume what could happen in the year ahead Having said that, as my son s favorite WWE wrestler when he was a little guy used to say It s time to play the game. Ill start with bonds I have owned puts on the long term treasury market for two years now I gave some back in 2010 after a huge gain in 2009 but am still slightly ahead Ill roll the position forward and buy January 2012 puts and stay short When I look at bods I hear some folks talking about r ising basic commodity prices and worrying about inflation They are of course correct This is happening I hear some other really smart folks talking of weak real estate, high jobless rates and the potential for falling back into recession Naturally, they are also exactly correct So I will predict the one thing no one else is We are on the verge of good old fashioned 1970s style stagflation Commodity and basic needs prices will accelerate as QE2 has at least stimulated demand form emerging markets by allowing these wonderful credits to borrow money cheaper than a school teacher with a 750 FICO score Binds go lower as rates spike Our economy and balance sheet are a mess and we have governments run by men in tin hats lecturing us on fiscal responsibility How low will they go Tim How the hell do I know I just think they go lower by enough for me to profit. Nor can I tell you where the stock market will go this year I suspect we have had it too good for too long for no reason so I think we ge t at least one spectacular gut wrenching, vomit inducing sell off during the year Much as lower than expected profits exposed the silly valuations of the new paradigm stocks I think that the darling group, retail will spark a sell-off in the stock market this year Sales will be up a little bit but except for Tiffany s TIF and that ilk margins are horrific Discounting started early this holiday and grew from there They will get steeper now that that Santa Claus has given back my credit card and returned to the great white north The earnings season will see a lot of missed estimates and lowered forecasts and that could well pop the bubble Once it starts the HFT boys and girls should make sure it goes lower than anyone expects. Here s the thing about my prediction It is no better than anyone else s In other words I am talking my book and predicting what I hope will happen Having learned this lesson over the years I have learned that when it comes to market timing and market direction I am probably the dumbest guy in the room Because of that I have trained myself to always buy the stuff that s too cheap not to own and hold it regardless After the rally since September truly cheap stuff is a little scarce on the ground but I have found enough to be about 40 long going into the year I have a watch list as long as a taller persons right arm but most of it hover above truly cheap. Here is what I own going into the year and think is still cheap enough to buy I like Winn Dixie WINN The grocery business sucks right now Wal mart has crushed margins industry wide That aside WINN trades at 60 of tangible book value and at some point their 514 stores in the Southeast will attract attention from investors A takeover here would be less than shocking I will add Presidential Life PLFE to the list This stock is also at 60 of tangible book and I expect to see a lot of M A activity in the insurance sector this year and this should raise valuations across the board I like Miller Petroleum M ILL with their drilling presence in Alaska and the shale field soft Tennessee This one trades at 70 of tangible book Ill add Imperial Sugar IPSU , Syms SYMS and Micron tech MU and Avatar Holdings AVTR to my list of cheapies and move on for now. I am going to start building my small bank portfolio this year Eventually this group becomes the F-you walk away money trade of the decade As real estate losses work through the balance sheet and some measure of stability returns to the financial system, perhaps toward the end of the year the small baileys savings and loan type banks should start to recover We will also see a mind blowing M A wave as larger banks look to gain not just market share but healthy assets to put on the books Right now these names trade at a fraction of tangible book value They will reach a multiple of that in a recovery or takeover scenario Right now I own shares of Shore Bancshares SHBI , a local bank trading at 80 of book value and a reasonably healthy loan portfolio I have some other mini microcap banks as well that shall remain my little secret and not used to figure how my predictions work out I mention them because if you have a mini micro bank in your community you should go meet then bankers, review the books and consider investing if it trades below the magical tangible book value and has excess capital Flagstar Bancorp FBC is my super long shot undated call option n the economy and real estate markets. I will also play the thrift conversion game heavily this year With the elimination of the Office of Thrift Services under the new financial regulation many of the benefits of being a private or mutual thrift are going away There are a ton of mutual savings banks that will now convert to publicly traded banks A lot of these deals will be priced below the pro forma book value that is created by adding all that lovely IPO cash to the balance sheet without a corresponding increase in the shares outstanding Right now I have Fox Chase Bancorp FXCB and Capital Federal Financial CFFN There will be more Deals are happening every day right now and again I would keep an eye out for local deals that you can take advantage of in the next few months. I also think that 2011 will be the year of the activist investor These folks took a beating since 2007 but this should be their year There is a ton of cash on corporate balance sheets but lots of underperformance in the current economic environment We will see activist drive takeovers, restructures, and special dividends this year in my opinion Recent filings of interest include strong activist positions in Surmodics SRDX , SeaChange International SEAC , and Energy Solutions Tracking activist portfolios and 13D filings should be a very profitable activity in 2011.I have been looking at some interesting new stuff with options as well I am not going to give most of it away just yet but I ll give you one stimulated by a recent list discussion H and R Black is highly likely to go into a private equity portfolio next year Management has made every mistake you can make and the loss of RALs is a big problem for the company However the brand has real value I do not want town the stock just yet but I like the idea of selling the January 2012 at 70 to 75 If you cash secure the put it s a 10 or so return if the stock stays above the strike If it falls below I ll be happy to own the stock with a 6 handle net Back in 2008 everyone anticipated a huge default wave to hit the high yield market Thanks to federal stimulus money pumping programs it did not happen However in the spirit of sell the dog food the dog will eat a given moment the hedge fund world raised an enormous amount od distressed debt money Thanks to this high yield spreads are far too low CCC paper in particular is priced at absurd levels These things trade like money good paper and much of it is not Extend and pretend has helped but if the economy stays weak and interest rates rise rolling over the tsunami f paper due ove r the next few years becomes nigh onto impossible I am going take small position in puts on the various high yield ETFs If I am right they will explode when that market implodes Continuing to talk my book I hope this happens Among my nightly prayers is Please God just one more two year period of asset rich companies with current payments having bonds trade below recovery value and I promise not to piss the money away this time Amen. PS If you add in risk arbitrage spreads of 30 annualized returns along with this I would not object Love, Tim. I can t tell you what the markets will do I do know that I want to own some safe and cheap stocks, some well capitalized small banks trading below book and participate in activist situation I will be under invested in equities going into the year hoping my watch list becomes my buy list in market stumble I will have put positions on long T-Bonds and high yield hoping for a large asymmetrical payoff. Other than that I am clueless. Kim Zussman comments. D oes anyone else think this year is harder than usual to forecast Is it better now to forecast based on market fundamentals or mass psychology We are at a two year high in stocks, after a huge rally off the 09 bottom that followed through this year One can make compelling arguments for next year to decline best case scenarios already discounted, prior big declines followed by others, volatility low, house prices still too high, FED out of tools, gov debt gdp, Roubini says so, benefits to wall st not main st, persistent high unemployment, Year-to-year there is no significant relationship, but there is a weak down tendency after two consecutive up years And compelling arguments for up as well crash-fears cooling, short MA s long MA s, retail investors and much cash still on sidelines, tax-cut extended, employee social security lowered, earnings increasing, GDP increasing, Tepper and Goldman say so, FED herding into risk assets, benefits to wall st not main st, employment starting to incre ase. Is the level of government market-intervention effective, sustainable, or really that unusual The FED looks to be avoiding Japan-style deflation at all costs, and has a better tool in the dollar A bond yields decline would help growth and reduce deflation risk Increasing yields would be expected with increasing inflation bad for growth but welcomed by retiring boomers looking for fixed income Will Obamacare be challenged or defanged by states or in the supreme court Will 2011 be the year of the muni-bubble pop. A ball of confusion.4 picks in equal proportion. long XLV health care etf underperformed last year. long CMF Cali muni bond fund fears over-wrought, investors still need tax-free yield. short GLD looks like a bubble and who needs gold anyway. short IEF 7-10Y treasuries near multi-year high QE2 is weaker than vigilantism. Alan Millhone writes. I note discussion over the rules etc Then you have a fellow like myself who has never bought or sold through the Market a single share. For my self I will stick with what I know a little something No, not Checkers. Rental property I have some empty units and beginning to rent one or two of late to increase my bottom line. I will not venture into areas I know little or nothing and will stay the course in 2011 with what I am comfortable. Happy New Year and good health. Jay Pasch predicts.2010 will close below SP futures 1255.Buy-and-holders will be sorely disappointed as 2011 presents itself as a whip-saw year.99 of the bullish prognosticators will eat crow except for the few lonely that called for a tempered intra-year high of. SPX will test 1130 by April 15 with a new recovery high as high as 1300 by the end of July. SPX 1300 will fail with new 2011 low of 1050 before ending the year right about where it started. The Midwest will continue to supply the country with good-natured humble stock, relatively speaking. Chris Tucker enters. Wildcard Buy and Hold AVAV. Gibbons Burke comments. Mr Ed Seykota once outlined for me the four essential rules of trading.1 The trend is your friend till it bends when it ends.2 Ride your winners.3 Cut your losses short.4 Keep the size of your bet small. Then there are the special rules.5 Follow all the rules. and for masters of the game.6 Know when to break rule 5.A prosperous and joy-filled New Year to everyone. John Floyd writes. In no particular order with target prices to be reached at some point in 2011.1 Short the Australian Dollar current 1 0220, target price 8000.2 Short the Euro current 1 3375, target price 1 00.3 Short European Bank Stocks, can use BEBANKS index current 107 40, target 70.A Mr Krisrock predicts.1 housing will continue to lag no matter what can be done and with it unemployment will remain.2 bonds will outperform as republicans will make cutting spending the first attack they make QE 2 will be replaced by QE3.3 with every economist in the world bullish, stocks will underperform.4 commodities are peaking. Laurel Kenner predicts. After having made monkeys of those lumina ries who shorted Treasuries last year, the market in 2011 has had its laugh and will finally carry out the long-anticipated plunge in bond prices. Short the 30-year bond futures and cover at 80.Pete Earle writes. All picks are for all year open first trading day close last trading day.1 Long EUR USD 2 Short gold GLD. Short MMR McMoran Exploration Corp HDIX Home Diagnostics Inc TUES Tuesday Morning Corp. Long PBP Powershares S P500 Buy-Write ETF NIB iPath DJ-UBS Cocoa ETF KG King Pharmaceuticals. Happy New Year to all. Paolo Pezzutti enters. If I may humbly add my 2 cents.- bearish on S P 900 in dec - crisis in Europe will bring EURUSD down to 1 15 - gold will remain a safe have haven up to 1500 - big winner natural gas to 8.J T Holley contributes. The Market Mistress so eloquently must come first and foremost Just as daily historical stats point to betting on the unchanged so is my S P 500 trade for calendar year 2011 Straddle the Mistress Day 1 My choice for own reasons with whatever leverage is suitable for pain thresholds is a quasi straddle 100 Long and 50 Short in whatever instrument you choose If instrument allows more leverage, first take away 50 of the 50 Short at suitable time and add to the depreciated hopefully still less than 100 Long Feel free to add to the Long at this discretionary point if it suits you At the next occasion that is discretionary take away remaining Short side of Quasi Straddle, buckle up, and go Long whatever Long that your instrument or brokerage allows till the end of 2011 Take note and use the historical annual standard deviation of the S P 500 as a rudder or North Star, and throw in the quarterly standard deviation for testing I think the ambiguity of the current situation will make the next 200-300 trading days of data collection highly important, more so than prior, but will probably yield results that produce just the same results whatever the Power Magnification of the Microscope. Long the U S Dollar Don t bother with the rest of the w orld and concern yourself with which of the few other Socialist-minded Country currencies to short Just Long the U S Dollar on Day 1 of 2011 Keep it simple and specialize in only the Long of the U S Dollar Cataclysmic Economic Nuclear Winter ain t gonna happen When the Pastor preaches only on the Armageddon and passes the plate while at the pulpit there is only one thing that happens eventually - the Parish dwindles and the plate stops getting filled The Dollar will bend as has, but won t break or at least I ain t bettin on such. Ala Mr Melvin, Short any investment vehicle you like that contains the words or numerals perpetual maturity , zero coupon and 20-30yr maturity in their respective regulated descriptions, that were issued in times of yore Unfortunately it doesn t work like a light switch with the timing, remember it s more like air going into a balloon or a slow motion see-saw We always want profits initially and now and it just doesn t work that way it seems in speculation Also , a side hedge is to start initially looking at any financial institution that begins, dabbles, originates and gains high margin fees from 50-100 year home loans or Zero-Coupon Home Loans if such start to make their way Stateside The Gummit is done with this infusion and cheer leading They are in protection mode, their profit was made Now the savy financial engineers that are left or upcoming will continue to find ways to get the masses to think they Own homes while actually renting them Think Car Industry 90- 06 with Japan did it with their Notes and I m sure some like-minded MBA s are baiting pushing the envelopes now in board rooms across the U S with their profitability and ROI models, probably have ditched the Projector and have all around the cherry table with IPads watching their presentation This will ultimately I feel humbly be the end of the Mortgage Interest Deduction as it will be dwindled down to a moot point and won t any longer be the leading tax deduction that it was cr eated to so-called help. Short Gold, Short it, Short it more Take all of your emotions and historical supply and demand factors out of the equation, just look at the historical standard deviation and how far right it is and think of Buzz Lightyear in Toy Story and when he thought he was actually flying and the look on his face at apex realization That plus continue doing a study on Google Searches and the number of hits on stolen gold , stolen jewelery , and Google Google side Ads for We buy Gold I don t own gold jewelery, and have surrendered the only gold piece that I ever wore, but if I was still wearing it I d be mighty weary of those that would be willing to chop a finger off to obtain That ain t my fear, that s more their greed. Long lithium related or raw if such Technology demands such going forward. Long Natural Gas Trading Day 1 till last trading day of the year The historic cheap price in the minds of wannabe s will cause it to be leveraged long and oft with increasing volume r egardless of the supply Demand will follow, Pickens sowed the seeds and paid the price workin the mule while plowin De-regulation on the supply side of commercial business statements is still in its infancy and will continue, politics will not beat out free markets going into the future. Long Crude and look to see the round 150 broken in years to come while China invents, perfects, and sees the utility in the Nuclear fueled tanker. Long LED, solar, and wind generation related with tiny positions Green makes since, its here to stay and become high margined profitable businesses. Short Sugar Sorry Mr Bow Tie Monsanto has you Beet That being stated, the substitute has arrived and genetically altered Roundup Ready is here to stay no matter what the Legislative Luddite Agrarians try, deny, or attempt With that said, Long MON It is way more than a seed company It is more a pharmaceutical engineer and will bring down the obesity ridden words Corn Syrup eventually as well Russia and Ireland will make sure of this with their attitudes of profit legally or illegally. Prepare to long in late 2011 the commercialized marijuana and its manufacturing, distribution companies that need to expand profitability from its declining tobacco Altria can t wait, neither can Monsanto It isn t a moral issue any longer, it s a financial profit one We get the joke, or choke If the Gummit doesn t see what substitutes that K2 are doing and the legal hassles of such and what is going on in Lisbon then they need to have an economic lesson or two It will be a compromise between the Commercial Adjective Definition Agrarians and Gummit for tax purposes with the Green theme continuing and lobbying. Short Coffee, but just the 1st Qtr of 2011 Sorry Seattle I will also state that there will exist a higher profit margin substitute for the gas combustible engine than a substitute for caffeine laden coffee. Sex and Speculation. Look to see go public in 2011 with whatever investment bank that does such trying their best to be anonymous Are their any investment banks around This Boxxx will make Red Box blush and Apple TV s box envious IPTV and all related should be a category that should be Longed in 2011 it is here to stay and is in it s infancy Way too many puns could be developed from this statement Yes, I know fellas the fyre boxxx is 6 s X 7 s. This is one category to always go Long I have vastly improved my guitar playin in 10 and will do so in 11 AAPL still has the edge and few rivals are even gaining market share and its still a buy on dips, sell on highs empirically counted They finally realized that 99 cents wasn t cutting it and 69 cents was more appropriate for those that have bought Led Zeppelin IV songs on LP, 8-track, cassette, and CD over the course of their lives Also, I believe technology has a better shot at profitably bringing music back into public schools than the Federal or State Gummits ever will. Long - Your mind Double down on this Day 1 of 2011 It s the most capable, profi table thing you have going for you I just learned this after the last 36 months. Long - Counting, you need it now more than ever It s as important as capitalism. Long - Being humble, it s intangible but if quantified has a STD of 4 if not higher. Long - Common Sense. Long - Our Children The media is starting to question if their education is priceless, when it is, but not in their context or jam. Short - Politics It isn t a spectator sport and it has been made to be such. Short - Fear, it is way way been played out Test anything out there if you like I have It is prevalent still and disbelief is rampant. Long - Greed, but don t be greedy just profitable Wall Street Money Never Sleeps was the pilot fish. I had to end on a Long note. Happy New Year s Specs Thanks to all for support over the last four years I finally realized that it ain t about being right or wrong, just profitable in all endeavors Too many losses led to this, pain felt after lookin within, and countin ones character results with pen paper. Russ Sears writes. For my entry to the contest, I will stick with the stocks ETF, and the index markets and avoid individual stocks, and the bonds and interest rates This entry was thrown together rather quickly, not at all an acceptable level if it was real money This entry is meant to show my personal biases and familiarity, rather than my investment regiment I am largely talking my personal book. Therefore, in the spirit of the contest as well as the rules I will expose my line of thinking but only put numbers on actual entry predictions Finally, if my caveats are not warning enough, I will comment on how a prediction or contest entry differs from any real investment I would make or have made. The USA number one new product export will continue to be the exportation of inflation The printing of dollars will continue to have unintended consequences than its intended effect on the national economy but have an effect on the global economy Such monetary policy will hit areas wit h the most potential for growth the emerging markets of China and India In these economies, that spends over half their income on food, food will continue to rise This appears to be a position opposite the Chairs starting point prediction of reversal of last year s trends. Likewise, the demand for precious metals such as gold and silver will not wane as these are the poor man s hedge against food cost It may be overkill for the advanced economies to horde the necessities and load up on precious metals Yet, unlike the 70 s the US European economy no longer controls gold and silver a paradigm shift in thinking that perhaps the simple statistician that uses weighted averages and the geocentric economist have missed So I believe those entries shorting gold or silver will be largely disappointed However in a nod to the chair s wisdom, I will not pick metals directly as an entry Last year s surprise is seldom this year s media darling However, the trend can continue and gold could have a good year The exception to the reversal rule seems to be with bubbles which gain a momentum of their own, apart from the fundamentals The media has a natural sympathy in suggesting a return to the drama of he 70 s, the stagflation dilemma and propelling an indicator of doom With the media s and the Fed s befuddled backing perhaps the exception is to be expected But I certainly don t see metal s impending collapse nor its continued performance. The stability or even elevated food prices will have some big effects on the heartland.1 For my trend is your friend pick Rather than buy directly into a agriculture commodity based index like DBA, I am suggesting you buy an equity agriculture based ETF like CRBA year end price at 77 50 I am suggesting that this ETF do not need to have commodities produce a stellar year, but simply need more confirmation that commodity price have established a higher long term floor Individually I own several of these stocks and my wife family are farmers and landowne rs for full disclosure purposes not to suggest I know anything about the agriculture business Price of farmland is raising, due to low rates, GSE available credit, high grain prices due to high demand from China India, ethanol substitution of oil A more direct investment in agriculture stability would be farmland Farmers are buying tractors, best seeds and fertilizers of course, but will this accelerate Being wrong on my core theme of stable to rising food commodity price will ruin this trade Therefore any real trade would do due diligence on individual stocks, and put a trailing floor And be sensitive to higher volatility in commodities as well as a appropriate entry and exit level.2 For the long term negative alpha, short term strength trade I am going with airlines and FAA at 49 42 at year end There seems to be finally some ability to pass cost through to the consumer, will it hold.3 For the comeback of the year trade XHB the homebuilders ETF , bounces back with 25 return While the overbuilding and vacancy rates in many high population density areas will continue to drag the home makes down, the new demand from the heartland for high end houses will rise that is this is I am suggesting that the homebuilders index is a good play for housing regionally decoupling from the national index And much of what was said about the trading of agriculture ETF, also apply to this ETF However, while I consider this a surprise , the surprise is that this ETF does not have a negative alpha or slightly positive This is in-line with my S P 500 prediction below Therefore unless you want volatility, simply buying the S P Vanguard fund would probably be wiser Or simply hold these inline to the index.4 For the S P Index itself I would go with the Vanguard 500 Fund as my vehicle VFINXF, and predict it will end 2011 at 145 03, this is 25 the dividend This is largely due to how I believe the economy will react this year.5 For my wild card regional banks EFT, greater than IAT 37 50 by end 2011.Yanki Onen writes. I would like to thank all for sharing their insights and wisdom As we all know and reminded time to time, how unforgiven could the market Mistress be We also know how nurturing and giving it could be Time to time i had my share of falls and rises Everytime I fall, I pick your book turn couple of pages to get my fix then scroll through articles in DSpecs seeking wisdom and a flash of light It never fails, before you know, back to the races I have all of you to thank for that.-This year s lagger next year s winner CSCO. Go long Jan 2012 20 Puts 2 63 Go long CSCO 19 55 Being long the put gives you the leverage and protection for a whole year, to give the stock time to make a move. You could own 100,000 shares for 263K with portfolio margin Sooner the stock moves the more you make time decay.-Sell contango Buy backwardation. You could never go wrong if you accept the truth, Index funds always roll and specs dont take physical delivery This cant be more true in Cotton. Ri ght before Index roll dates it is widely published sell front month buy back month especially when it is giving you almost -30 to do so Sell March CT Buy July CT pyramid this trade untill the roll date sometime at the end of Jan or begining of Feb when they are almost done rolling watch the shift in open interest close out and Buy May CT sell July CT wait patiently for it to play it out again untill the next roll.- Leveraged ETFs suckers play. Two ways to play this one out if you could borrow and sell short, short both FAZ and FAS equal amounts since the trade is neutral, execute this trade almost free of margin One thing is for sure to stay even long after we are gone is volatility and triple leveraged products melt under volatility. If you cant borrow the shares execute the trade using Jan 12 options to open synthetic short positions This trade works with time and patience. Vic, thanks again for providing a platform to listen and to be heard. Phil McDonnell writes. When investing one shou ld consider a diversified portfolio But in a contest the best strategy is just to go for it After all you have to be number one. With that thought in mind I am going to bet it all on Silver using derivatives on the ETF SLV. SLV closed at 30 18 on Friday. Buy Jan 2013 40 call for 3 45 Sell Jan 2012 40 call at 1 80 Sell Jul 25 put at 1 15 debit is 50.Exit strategy close out entire position if SLV ETF reaches a price of 40 or better If 40 is not reached then exit on 2 31 2011 at the close. George Parkanyi entered. For what it s worth, the Great White North weighs in 3 Markets equally weighted - 3 stages each if rules allow - all trades front months 3 JAN 2011 BUY NAT GAS at open. BUY SILVER at open. BUY CORN at open 28 FEB 2011 Reverse Positions SELL and then SHORT NAT GAS at open. SELL and then SHORT SILVER at open. SELL and then SHORT CORN at open 1 AUG 2011 Reverse Positions COVER and then BUY NAT GAS at open. COVER and then BUY SILVER at open. COVER and then BUY CORN at open Hold all positions t o the end of the year. WILD CARD 3 JAN BUY PLATINUM and hold to end of year. Markets to unexpectedly carry through in New Year despite correction fears. Spain Ireland debt roll issues - Europe Euro in general - will be in the news in Q1 Q2.- markets will correct sharply in late Q1 through Q2 interest rates will be rising. Markets will kick in again in Q3 Q4 with strong finish on more earlier QE in both Europe and US - hard assets will remain in favour corn platinum shortages cooling trend economic recovery to favour nat gas. Also assuming seasonals will perform more or less according to stats. If rules do not allow directional changes then go long NAT GAS, SILVER, and CORN on 1 AUG 2011 cash until then wild card trade the same. Gratuitous pointless prediction At least two European countries will drop out of Euro in 2011 at least announce it and go back to their own currency. Marlowe Cassetti enters. Buy FXE - Currency Shares Euro Trust. XLE - Energy Select. BAL - iPath Dow Jones-AIG Cotton Total Return Sub-Index. GDXJ - Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners. AMJ - JPMorgan Alerian MLP Index ETN. VNM - Market Vectors Vietnam ETF. Kim Zussman entered. long XLV health care etf underperformed last year long CMF Cali muni bond fund fears over-wrought, investors still need tax-free yield short GLD looks like a bubble and who needs gold anyway short IEF 7-10Y treasuries near multi-year high QE2 is weaker than vigilantism. Watching an episode of Pawn Stars In reality I like to see what items people bring to the pawn shop to either sell or pawn. The owners seem to a have large shop full of all kinds of collectibles My main concern is Rick owns shop with his father constantly has to call in outside experts to evaluate or verify authenticity To be in that business you better know a little bit about ephemera and coins and ball cards and cast iron toys and still and mechanical banks as knock offs are everywhere that antiques have risen in value Also include art. Is this like the Market trader having t o rely on others to make important buy or sell decisions and not learning on their own to make critical educated decisions. Sam Marx comments. I ve watched Pawn Stars a few times the gullability of people when they need a loan is amazing It s like watching a car accident Also, I would venture that the average of all the IQ s of people pawning items is below average I would also guess that the vast majority of those items pawned are never redeemed Confession I pawned an item once, an emergency, but I took it out of pawn 2 days later. I know that junk car yards are connected to find parts between themselves, it s like having a vast inventory I don t believe pawn dealers are connected this way. Has anyone ever thought of working a deal with these pawn brokers and putting their items on an internet website Something like an Ebay for pawn brokers or maybe they are doing it themselves. Thomas Miller writes. This show is a great example of the ageless advice never try to bullshit a bullshitter you ll never win I suspect most pawnbrokers love the art of haggling and would rather sell to someone one face to face to use their skills to get the best price, rather than through internet auctions. Art Cooper adds. Related to this, see the article Payday Lenders Go Hunting on p C1 of today s WSJ, on the expanding operations of such companies as Advance America, which make unsecured loans at annualized interest rates as high as 391.One has been reading a book on speed mathematics by Bill Handley Most kids who take the course can do all arithmetic operations much faster in their head then with a calculator, a very useful thing I ve found To multiply 98 by 97 take 2 from 97 That becomes 9500 Then add 2 3 for 9506 To multiply 11 by any 2 digit number, like, 11 x 32, the answer has a 3 and a 2 in it at the ends, and the sum of digits 4 in between 3 4 2 I m not that good at it yet as there are as many rules as memorizing the tables almost. But one wonders whether there are any speed rules for ma king a profit that apply to all markets. Alan Millhone writes. Tom says Move in haste - repent in leisure. Does that fall under the speed rule for the Market. Jeff Watson writes. Most successful pit traders had a mastery of quick arithmetic out of necessity In fact, I never ran across one that wasn t an arithmetic whiz. Steve Ellison writes. Arthur Benjamin s Secrets of Mental Math has many similar techniques For example, the square of any 2-digit number ending in 5, let s call the number n5, always ends in 25 The product of n and n 1 goes before the 25 For example, 75 squared is 5625 7 8 with a 25 tacked on. Professor Benjamin recommends solving math problems left to right, contrary to the standard method of solving right to left and carrying digits An advantage of solving left to right is that if one wants to instantly answer a problem called out by the audience, as Professor Benjamin does at his public appearances, one can start speaking the first part of the answer while still working out the final digits. My daughter and I were watching a video of Professor Benjamin in which he showed a standard multiplication table from 1 to 10 and asked what the sum of all the results was In 2 seconds, my daughter called out a formula, which was easily solvable using one of the mental shortcuts. There are some mental shortcuts for the stock market that have become part of Wall Street lore and seem to have some validity, although they are far from 100 accurate - Sell in May and go away - Don t fight the Fed - Never short a dull market - Cut losses and let profits run. My suggestions for the stock market would be - Liquidity premium when there is forced buying or selling as evidenced by a sharp price move, it often pays to take the other side - Follow the insiders - Always copper the public play Bacon. For physical commodities - Buy backwardation sell contango - The trend is your friend. Sushil Kedia writes. Vedic Mathematics a book I remember having sent to you by post a few years ago is a brilliant SYSTEM of only 10 rules that will facilitate a very wide variety of calculations It can calculate as good as instantly a multiplication of any digits of numbers multiplied by any number of digits too There are recipes in that. Bowling and the Market. Every Saturday watch my two grandsons league bowl They try to make a strike each time they are on the lanes much like the trader attempts a perfect trade on each trade execution Bowlers do their best to stay out of the gutters as the trader attempts to avoid bad trades and stay on course Overhead monitors keep score and also show how to pick up spares The Dow etc also has overhead screens to track the Markets The hand written stock trader manuscript serves a similar purpose of tracking prior errors. To a rube like myself I see a weak dollar More mortgage problems Continued unemployment Inflation. To me metals has to be good as a hedge Bank CD s are a joke and will be for several years Money market accounts the same dismal returns. The average person has little to no faith in our government We are engaged in two more Viet Nams where political correctness holds back our generals from winning. These are just my own personal observations as a 62 year old small businessman from Southern Ohio I love America but am badly disappointed in our leaders. Exiting trades is always the toughest part of the game for me on a speculative basis, especially wanting to book trades to protect P and L, after taking a few hits But what I find interesting is some trades are easier to let run than others with the same risk on the board And it will come as no surprise to all that these are the low volatility plays but what is it Realistically the high volatility are the trader s saviors, and can turn a 3 bagger into a 8 bagger in a heartbeat These are precisely the ones we should be putting on the risk and shutting down the screen But hey the risk of scratching in a heartbeat is only too real as well, and there lies the trade off. Alan Millhone writes. The late Tom Wiswell said, keep the draw in sight at the Checker board Knowing when to execute a trade at the board certainly carriers over to stock trading and knowing when to liquidate your position on the board or at the big board. I spent this past week in Medina, Ohio as referee for a world title Free Style Checker match of 24 games between reigning Champion Ron Suki King of Barbados and challenger Dr Richard Beckwith of Ohio I know a little about Checkers and watching these two Grandmasters all week was quite a treat. Games one through twelve were all drawn and the players knew when to liquidate their position and make effective trades to exist the game Suki changed up in game 13 and won as Dr Beckwith stuck around too long and got into trouble by not having an effective exit strategy and lost. I sat and witnessed game 22 as Dr Beckwith improved on an ending that Suki and the late Derek Oldbury of England played off another opening that transposed into the line of play that w as used in game 22 After 4 hours and 22 minutes Dr Beckwith emerged as the victor after a hard fought ending that Suki could not escape Dr Beckwith had previously studied this ending that arose in game 22 and knew how to win the ending Hand held notes as the Chair admonishes at the Checker board or the big board are critical to survive. Suki drew game 22 and won the final game with an odd line of the Tillcoultry opening that Dr Beckwith failed to meet correctly and did not trade out early enough and lost on a ending bind that he could not escape. Knowledge is power on both boards I was a first hand eye witness to this all last week watching these two greats do battle over the checkered squares. As Chair points out, there are direct correlations to board games and stock trading and stock exit strategies that will help keep you unscathed. Phil McDonnell writes. One strategy I use with certain option spreads is something I call stop profit exit I talked about it in my book For strategies such as butterflies and calendar spreads the profit peaks out at a certain definable point relative to the underlying asset For many ratio spreads there is a peak profit but that point changes dynamically with time The point is that deciding to get out at the peak profit is a no brainer Once it hits that point you will give money back if it goes up or down from there The exit can and should be should be mechanical. The probability of touching a price target is governed by our old favorite the arc sine distribution Because of the Reflection Principle the probability of the target being touched is twice that of it being above or below that target at the end of a given time period. Took my daughter to Cleveland and the Browns game last night. I told her cell phones are an epidemic observing from my seat all the texting etc and noticed all the fans around us covered in tattoos. Inking is expensive Makes me ponder if the economy is really so bad. Fireworks show after the game were unreal and made the evening complete. Peter Earle writes. Actually, like the market for shoes, the skin inking enterprise is a great example of the economic possibilities of a virtually unregulated market. Typically relegated to prisons, the backs of bars liquor stores, and other venues which the political parasites aren t wont to enter or be concerned with, the market for tattooing has seen explosive growth over the past 15 years I personally attribute the growth to both a the social acceptance, later encouragement, of women to get tattoos, at least doubling the size of the market and b the growth of musical and sports gangsterism , in which an arms race for flesh adornment has led to sleeves and neck head facial tattoos to grow in prominence and, again, broadening acceptance of the undertaking. With that explosive demand, from a fairly small number of parlors and side-venues I note the arrival of small entrepreneurs, ranging from affordable, storefront tattoo shops in malls to artist partnerships offering extremely high level quality and service a virtually unfettered capitalism resulting in a wide range of various sometimes bundled services across a gamut of specialties and levels of talent, availability and differentiation resulting in a lowering of cost and huge product diversity. Thus has arisen the inarguable ubiquity of the illustrated populace. Marion Dreyfus comments. My friends and I personally find tattoos artistic, executed in the main with extraordinary skill, and yet horrendous on a human being I would not date a man with tattoos, and I avoid females who have indulged. One always muses What will happen in 10 years How hideous will you find what you have done. I surmise the followers of this unfortunate craft will subscribe to that existential philosophy Live fast, leave a pretty corpse. Peter Earle replies. But from a broader perspective the growth of tattooing is not only, in a market or business sense, a great example of the potential of free markets, but also illustrative of th e social effects of what this country is in fact evolving into economically - hampered, intervention belabored, highly-regulated and increasingly socialist. The social consequences arising of a credit-inflated, saving-disinclined, personal responsibility-defenestrated environment is tends to be an immense high-time preference inclination of society people thinking of the next 10 minutes, ten weeks or four years, and less of the long term picture. In 60 years, elderly women with sagging, blotchy lower-back tattoos will crowd shorelines, and men s biceps forearms backs will murkily herald rock bands, songs, products and memes long since discredited and in any case extinct. Pitt T Maner writes. Temporary tattoos made with henna were seen available near Manhattan east side docks where tour boats to Statue of Liberty are located Advertised as an approximate 2-week tattoo experience You could get the vicarious sailor tatoos around Halloween time as a good addition to your costume Some might be al lergic to henna though. Indian bridal henna tatoos can quite elaborate and beautiful in some cases. But I ll pass on anything permanent. I also thought the 3-D photo images available at the docks where they holographically put your image in a block of plastic were kinda of neat if not a bit touristy Good for a paperweight Sort of dates the old photo booths Evidently you can spend more on a real portrait What tourists are being sold and what they buy is an interesting study in itself It has to be a highly studied field. I couldn t resist the Mexican jumping beans at JFK Hadn t seen them in 40 years You end up paying about a 1 a bean if you count only the alive ones A nice markup there. Gordon Haave writes. A friend of mine who had tattoos and now is getting them removed says there is big competition and the laser removal guys are quick to cut rates Apparently GE financed the purchase of the lasers the last few years and now people have defaulted and the lasers have hit the market cheap. Just o ne date point, I don t know this firsthand. Resources Links. Atlas Shrugged was the biggest, most beautiful book and for ten years has been my standard That s how long it took to write Advanced Racquetball the sequel to my best selling Complete Book of Racquetball that promised, forty years ago, this sequel It s 825 pages and covers every aspect of the game from sneaker to frontal lobes for Open to Pro players. It was a labor of love for 1000 hours in an Amazon sweat box cyber for 11 hours a day, seven days a week for the last three months, on top of a previous thousand or so hours writing earlier sections There are over 400 photos including sequential strokes and serves Personal interviews with 90 of the 30 most recent world champions A full appendectomy. I decided to scuttle the title, and shrug like Atlas, due to the incompetence of the undeserving racquetball community They are also a verbal rather than print page readers My goal was accomplished in writing the book and listing it at O ne other set of Miami eyes who has read the single copy in existence said, It s very good, but too long for the racquetball mentality I ll give the single copy, like Diogenes, to the first deserving player I meet I withhold it from the public and if you want to know why read Atlas Shrugged. We can soon expect to hear the mumbo about how if January is down the market is likely to be down for the year et al How many times does this have to fail before it loses its impact. Rocky Humbert writes. Feel free to call this mumbo but there are hundreds of millions, if not billions, of US stock market positions that will exit if the market closes today below the 1960-2000 level I am not predicting today s close and the probability of falling 40 spu points is always very low hence betting on this outcome has lousy odds. However, I will predict with confidence that should these stops get triggered, you will be rubbing your eyes next week at the much lower prices you will see. Hernan Avella writes. What h appened with the idea you championed back in December about the wisdom of the common man, that poured 36 5 billion into stock funds on Xmas week, marking the biggest inflows on record as U S stocks surged to record highs Are those the positions that are looking to sell today Enlighten us please. Rocky Humbert writes. The common man will do just fine It s the professionals who will be selling based on things such as this. Anton Johnson writes. Wondering about the self-promoting Mebane Faber and his recently launched ETF buisness, I found this value nugget. Cambria global value ETF GVAL return since inception 3-12-2014 till 1-28-2015 is. The Cambria Global Value ETF seeks investment results that closely correspond to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Cambria Global Value Index The Index next separates the top 25 of these countries as measured by Cambria s proprietary long term valuation metrics The Index then screens stocks with market capitalizations over 200 m illion The Index is comprised of approximately 100 companies. anonymous writes. Meb Faber likes to look at 12 month moving averages computed at the end of the month For S P we have. Mr Keeley, rush to the to the SED room The students are throwing chairs at the teacher. Weekly, at Blythe, CA High School through the 2000s, a frantic version of this blast over the school intercom for all to hear summoning me to put out another fire in the Severely Emotionally Disturbed classroom at the back of the campus between the 4-H pens of pigs, goats and cows and the broad irrigation canal. Once there, in the spartan SED room, the small group of eight edgy youngsters told how they had browbeat or attacked the sub fleeing the doorway at that second I would answer, Everyone in Sand Valley where I live, and everyone throughout my travels, flies off the handle once in a while The trick is to identify the cause and correct it It s the same process as fixing a racquet stroke, where I was a champion. Fortunately , as in racquetball where I flung my cover onto the court and was ahead 3-0 before the first serve, my reputation preceded me into this classroom Sometimes I think the students rioted to summon me, as prison inmates stage food fights to break routine The kids brightened to reveal the bizarre reasons for their misbehavior that had caused their banishment to this awkward class. First, I told them, We aren t going to use the term SED around here Labels create identities You guys are as normal as me and my neighbors in Sand Valley Next, the goal is to mainstream you back into the normal classes Third, if you re in here at your parent s order to create a portfolio of being whacky in order to get on welfare for the rest of your lives, think again There s a long line of students wishing to replace you in this class Fourth, my methods are unorthodox but effective I m not a schooled psychologist, but if you do your work, I ll reward each daily lesson with a related story from the road. Their excu ses were miserably true Some were rising with the roosters at 5 am without breakfast to ride a bus for an hour from an outlying farm to the school, and arrived irritated Or, their parents drank and hit them the night before A couple were worried about being accosted after school, and showed secreted 10 drill bits slid into their book spines One albino had unrecognized photophobia Another was dyslexic Another painted his fingernails purple and talked with a lisp for attention These were the campus hard luck cases lumped into one classroom, their last chance before expulsion, and I was their last hope. When you have someone over a barrel like this, life is actually pretty easy I dimmed the harsh fluorescent lights, and we did jumping jacks, sit-ups and pushups for twenty minutes Then I turned down the thermostat to cool the room, a la public airplanes to calm the passengers I opened the day s assignment from the permanent SED teacher, the gorgeous lady I ll call Ms Libda, who often was aw ay at business meetings, and so her duty fell on me She was talented, caring, a former Navy medic, cop, and prison turnkey. After their work was done, and the adventure story reward, I wrote up a detailed report on what had taken place and the progress of each student in mirror writing Mirror writing reads from right to left, and early on in my subbing career the principal had called me into his office to explain why many of the students, especially the athletes, were seen reading their texts upside down He had a boxing picture of himself on the wall from his youth, and I threw a mock left hook at his jaw, while justifying that if he had read print flowing right-to-left then his eyes would be quicker to have caught the jab, as well as the next butterfly, car or ball My after class reports to the Ms Libda were a hit, and one day she addressed me, The students like you, and so do I I see you as a male version of myself We commenced dating and she, in a mothering way, often slept in late a fter calling the school for a sub, so I could get a call on the same phone to report for work. The goals were met with success, the students stopped clawing wallpaper off the walls, were cordial to the visiting sheriff, no more suicide attempts, and the primary object to mainstream the students back into their ordinary classrooms. The most valuable lesson I imparted to my xenophobic students was on Small Town, America That s normal as she goes in Small Town, America Their explanation for everything is, We been here a hundred years, and we been doing things this way a hundred years Hence the state motto, Be part of a group, take and give orders, obey The solution, students, is to proceed with patience through your youth, and then strike out to new horizons You can always take the beaten path back to Blythe. Ms Libda finally took a job elsewhere, and I was hired by Riverside County to replace her full time There was a huge boost in salary to 40,000 with full medical I began anonymously dona ting 15 of my salary back to student lunches, good books, pupil doctor bills, and chessboards for the library. I had a great idea from One Flew Over the Cuckoo s Nest in which the patient McMurray masquerading as a psychiatrist takes the other patients on outings from the hospital Securing permission from the principal, who was now my pal from the boxing lesson, I took the SED classes on educational outings to the city library, prison, bowling alley, and for nature walks along the irrigation ditch that blocked their graduation into the real world. In the coming months, my classroom door was revolving like a barroom on a Saturday night with new students arriving as soon as the former were mainstreamed Soon the backlist ran out, and the class dwindled to three students. One day, after being the full-time SED teacher for about six months, I was called during class by the Riverside school administration The director politely informed, I see you have mainstreamed nearly all of your students ba ck into their regular classrooms Congratulations We are letting you go. I laughed, cleaning the desk I had worked myself out of a job. The lesson is don t be a square peg in a round hole without expecting consequence Heed your inner calling, but be prepared to move on I hit the trail to world adventure to have more stories to tell to a succeeding class.1 Average returns on equities are, to pick a number at random, 7 But if business was untaxed that might become 10 and if sales taxes disappeared and fell to the bottom line, that might become 14 Over fifty years, the difference reinvested would be over 20x more capital and we could all take things easy.2 The British government likes to take payments on account from its non-PAYE taxpayers, thus taking prepayments on tax due before the year end With a 2 cost of capital and vast working capital resources, this seems somewhat ungracious behaviour Unless perhaps it has been noted by the government that most small businesses fail under a vast bu rden of taxes, domestic and European regulations, import and export duties, etc and like a retail forex broker who well knows all his Ma Pa clients will eventually liquidate under monstrous vig, in all cases novates client collateral as early as possible.3 It has been noted that a handful of rich people control as much wealth as billions of poor do But most of the world s poorest people have no savings at all, and thus if you summate a partial set with its values chosen to be very close to zero and compare it to another set who s numbers are not, you will obviously see a large inequality You could just as validly say that a regular US citizen with 1,000 of savings has a thousand times as much wealth as someone in the Congo who is down to his last dollar, and present this too as being fetid and greedy.4 The 1 s per capita wealth is calculated as a capitalised mean sum, with the average net worth of the 1 in the US being around 15-20m But every hundredth person you meet does not have a b alance sheet close to that, as the mean and median are very different Thus the media creates a perception of the 1 s situation that is totally unrelated to reality.5 It is a great shame that there are so many poor in the world But what have the free markets wrought in this respect By the power law of the distribution of wealth, just Bill Gates and Warren Buffett s wealth alone must represent a significant percentage of the 1 s stash It so happens that these two individuals have donated, or earmarked for the future, close to 100 of their accrued savings to philanthropic causes Bill Gates is one of the most accomplished businessmen on the planet and he has thrown his labour, intellect and organisational skills in for free In contrast, had they been taxed to the utmost on the way, might it be reasonable to expect that their funds would have dissipated across a variety of government departments of dubious efficiency.7 Indeed, if the 1 control around 20tr of the USA s 60tr of wealth, and Bu ffett and Gates are packing 150bn between them, that s already 0 75 of the dough being hotly debated that is in fact earmarked for charitable purposes.8 If one continued this calculation all the way down the wealth tree, excluding capital that s either pledged for philanthropic purposes or being reinvested in fixed capital in order to create better living standards for the population something consistently hidden in the hedonic adaptation of inflation statistics , what percentage of their wealth do the megarich actually consume.9 Are the megarich not in fact spending most of their lives competing for their table ranking on the website, each download of which is worth about 0 001 cents Should we not be grateful for this self-deception on their and their no-doubt heavily plastic-surgeried wives and girlfriends behalves.10 These notes may or may not have been sponsored by the Koch Brothers. Gary Rogan writes. There seem to be at least two aspects to the growing wealth disparity a To what de gree the elite controls new wealth creation through illicit illegal immoral means b To what degree the highly intelligent educated those of proper disposition are able to earn more than the rest simply because they are better suited to thrive in today s economy Usually, the vast majority of those who talk about this subject of the growing inequality have an agenda to capitalize on wealth redistribution rhetoric and want to attribute wealth inequality to the simple existence of capitalism, and have no intention to solve the problem nor even care about it otherwise. Well, everything is going to hell Russia is still a problem, Greece seems to be turning into a trojan horse, the European QE, if confirmed by the data, will be fuel to the fire otherwise wasted money The real QE for Europe would be fiscal union, it is not clear which masochism perverse wants to continue to kick the can despite all that is happening They are destroying, structurally and industrially, European nations. I think th e Euro should yield against the next 2 3 months if will follow positive data, so I expect what happened from 15gen hammer on European indices Otherwise the will continue to parity, EUR 0 80 0 75 worst case I think that pears are ripe in the US, so maybe sell the tops and put into treasury waiting for the second part of the year when better occasions are a possibility Oil will rise in second part of 2015 if not before. I think Macro decision are faster than fact, but there is nothing worse than to inject money in an economy unable to recover because it was managed by opportunistic nations politician bureaucrats not willing to cooperate. Structurally, the QE will not have any improvement It makes no sense to do austerity while the EU industrial system collapses and then six years later, they realized the error, try to revive the fortunes of the economy printing The system to indebt nations and then manage them better, so loved by the IMF, seems to have become ingrained in Europe My grandmo ther used to say, it was better when it was worse, and we were unaware of that, but she was right. width 402 height 268 I recently stumbled across the work of Peter Turchin, an evolutionary biologist, who is attempting to applying quantifiable scientific techniques to the study of history as part of a field known as cliodynamics. From the Santa Fe Institute s blurb on it. The past does not repeat itself, but it rhymes, Mark Twain once said, a reference to the patterns of history, perceived anecdotally Today, a new field is coalescing around the notion that historical patterns are, to some degree, measurable, and that the future can, also to some degree, be predicted Researchers involved in the field call it cliodynamics after Clio, the Greek muse of history. Scholars of human history traditionally have studied the past as a chain of idiosyncratic events, with each event a unique response to unique circumstances, says SFI External Professor David Krakauer Historical fields such as paleontology have relied on collections of evidence fossils, for example to draw inferences about the past. A few fields have made strides in approaching history as a science In archaeology, for example, rigorous field survey methods have provided new, quantifiable information about the location, distribution, frequency, and organization of certain human activities In population genetics, evolutionary outcomes are modeled as probabilities Cliodynamicists would like to see the historical fields sharing methods among themselves and adopting approaches and theories from physics and other long-quantified fields. The tools of complexity science are now beginning to make the task tractable, Krakauer says Mathematical and computational techniques such as agent-based models, power-law relations, and more classical differential-equation models are in several fields helping scientists develop new theoretical frameworks, for example. Although he did not perhaps agree with how reductionistic cliodynamics seems at first glance, I can t help but see echoes of Giovanni Battista Vico s New Science in this eff ort. I have to give credit for the sheer audacity of this pipedream. Turchin has published a book called Secular Cycles related to this topic and also maintains a website I started to wade through his paper on analyzing the Dynamics of political instability in the United States, 1780 2010 also It s not without flaws, but is worth a look. The whole field may end up doomed to failure and hopefully won t become another dismal science, but I thought it was worth a look, and was wondering if any other specs are familiar with it. If nothing else, it might cross pollinate with some ideas for trading. anonymous writes. This sounds VERY much like the premise behind Isaac Asimov s Foundation Series, the books that got me hooked on his work and Sci-Fi in general. From the above wiki. The premise of the series is that the mathematician Hari Seldon spent his life developing a branch of mathematics known as psychohistory, a concept of mathematical sociology Using the laws of mass action, it can predict the future, but only on a large scale. The CME and the CFTC are doing a great job at destroying the market ecology by exterminating the spoofers out of the futures markets This clever species helps maintain the equilibrium of order flow by gaming liquidity asymmetries and thus keeping the population of naive momentum front-running strategies in check It reminds me of the extinction and later reintroduction of the wolves in Yellowstone. Ed Stewart writes. I can t see how spoofers are bad for anyone but the momentum front runners, as you suggest There must be a god given right to jump in front of slower moving participants that we are not aware of I d love to know how the spoofing practice developed My guess is it started as a counter-strategy to neutralize front-running before it became a source of profit. Vinh Tu writes. And they destroyed limit orders when they busted the trades during the flash crash I guess front-running is the only virtuous and god-favoured strategy. Hernan Avella writes. Vin h, I think the case with the limit orders is simply adaptation forced by the hft boys techniques They have raised everybody s game What do ppl gain by advertising their intention in the order book What it s remarkable, is how long it took for other participants to start randomizing, splitting and using hidden orders in a more widespread fashion. But to your point, yes, speed is expensive and they try to recover those costs. anonymous writes. Famous energy trader John Arnold says. Front-running is profitable against traditional orders entered by humans But with spoofers in the mix, the picture looks quite different When the front-running HFT algorithm jumps ahead of a spoof order, the front-runner gets fooled and loses money The HFT s front-running algorithm can t easily distinguish between legitimate orders and spoofs Suddenly the front-runner faces real market risk and makes the rational choice to do less front-running In short, spoofing poses the risk of making front-running unprofitable Because spoofing is only profitable if front-running exists, allowing both would ensure that neither is widespread. The basic ideas are very similar to Hernan s market ecology post. The one thing that the ministers told Carlos was that the Saudi Ambassador must not be harmed as the country was the Lynchpin of everything The visit by Obama and the avoidance of the French by the US provides evidence 25 years later of the wisdom of Carlos. It s during bizzards moreso than other storms that people suffer severe injuries Orthopedic surgeons are usually quite busy after historic storms Whether this one will meet the forecast remains to be seen. When I was on call at Shock-Trauma during the 1983 blizzard, we a sustained of blizzard condition whiteout and wind Some fellow in Frederick County I was in Baltimore City decided it would be a great time to take his snowmobile out for a romp through the storm He missed seeing the tree that his snowmobile took on and lost and he suffered multiple system injuries lacerated liver it was half off the vena cava, and the surgeons were amazed he survived the helicopter trip , broken pelvis, broken femur, collapsed lung, brain hemorrhage, skull fracture, broken cheek and eye socket, 4 or 5 broken ribs, a broken knee cap, a broken wrist, a bunch of broken toes and bilateral dislocated shoulders, not to mention extensive bruising he received something like 25 or 30 units of blood It was pretty bad He walked out of the hospital 6 weeks later. Blizzards are dangerous They re not just big storms. AMERICAN SNIPER and THE HURT LOCKER aside, it s relatively rare for a film today to exude l air de macho accomplished John Wayne bought the farm a while back Van Damme and company are on hiatus Liam is being re-TAKEN and re-re-TAKEN. But BLACK SEA comes close to being a tough-minded, suspense-driven masculine welcome basket to movie goers hungry for actors, not CG effects For tough-minded scripting, withut PC rubbish leavening the text for the delicate micr o-aggression-oriented. Black Sea is that movie Directed by Kevin Macdonald, the story starts in the dismissal of Robinson, a vet submarine captain, played by a terrific, corpus-hardened Jude Law, who walks with the bowlegs and slight caveman predisposition of a long-time swabbie Sailors on land look always slightly untrusting of the ground beneath them, and manifest a wide stance in case the terra become not-so-firma under them He s being excessed by a maritime salvage company that is dry-eyed about its seamen, and not given to watches and lifted-pinky farewell parties. Some 70 years ago, a German U-boat laden with 40 million or so in gold was lost somewhere in the Black Sea Recovering it is a scheme Law and his close mates come up with to generate money after they ve been cashiered without much of a envelope Don t let the door hit you on the way out. Outfitting the old sub they are given by a go-between, Daniels Scoot McNairy to accomplish the recovery of the gold bars means hiring a rou ghneck crew half Russians, half Brits Much of the dialogue is in untranslated Russian, but when there are subtitles from the swarthy, often taciturn Russkies, they are mouthing wisecracking or typically no-bull grit the audience laughs with, though the British naveys have no idea about The movie might well gain if they were to subtitle the British dialogues, since they are fast, guttural and often below the obvious comprehensible threshold. The opening credits feature a montage of Stalin, WWII at sea with Germans and Russians in grainy perspective, and on land, with a wash of blood drenching the screens top to bottom These B W and aged-brown photos and footage set the scene for the coming hours of risky scrimmage against Russian fleets, inter-ethnic and internecine pile-ons, ever-present perils of being leagues deep in a Sargasso of oceanic dangers and unpredictable fails And a stunning betrayal even the savviest could not swallow. Robinson Law runs the Russian diesel sub, grizzled and b elievable There is a young guy, 18, Tobin Bobby Schofield who s a last-minute hire, aboard for lack of one of the experienced submariners, and he both grows with the part, learning the baffling wheels and pressure gauges mostly from the Russian orders, grunts and directional hand-language as well as from the fatherly interest taken by Law in him It is a humanizing affection that each time it is exhibited in the midst of crises of increasing severity makes you aware of the subtlety of Law s work often, such men have scant room for affectionate care of anyone, let alone newbies they are stuck with in battle conditions. The Russians, superstitious and tough, call the young man dragooned into being their 12th, derisively, The Virgin Men of the sea don t think it propitious to travel with a virgin In our experience amain, sailors and such high-risk adventurers do not take kindly to women traveling with them in any capacity, either even disguised as so-so effeminate men, with breasts squooshe d We see Robinson s gauzy flashbacks to his once-happy family, gone consequent to his career choice. In such circumstances, there is usually a split unequal in the divisions of the eventual haul, should they manage to find the sunken sub and extract the gold But Law s skipper knows the men are all working equally hard, all under equal risk, and he rules the gold is to be divided equally among all the men, leading to no small squalls of rage, envy, grumbling and dissatisfaction. The cinematography is fine, managing to convey the claustrophobic and ancientness of the craft, but capturing the man to man to man interactions in life and death encounters Viewers are gripped with each hair-trigger decision and crisis. The story, taut as it is, is something of a relief, coming at a time of Angelina Jolie s harrowing but true UNBROKEN, Hawking s crippled presence in THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING, and Turing cerebral, aristocratic IMITATION GAME It s about the recovery of millions of dollars worth of un discovered gold, not existential catastrophe and civilizational doom. It s a man s movie, a relieving movie, like a trou Normand it clears the too-brutal menu of realia from the average filmgoer s palate It is a tense, manly engagement, revealing how men on their uppers handle cooperation, fear, competition for top dog, and prime in such cases, greed. I always thought dogs were angels too, and trained hard many years in veterinary school to heal them. However, certain dogs in certain countries, depending on the people that influence them, in one month turn from angels to snarling demons I learned a lot in the past seven months fighting about eight dog packs of 5-10 animals each by being surrounded by them all snapping within four feet front, back, and either side. The best thing to do is to back into a corner Otherwise the fastest alpha will sprint around and try to hamstring you by biting in the rear It s impossible to watch 360 degrees, so if one is encircled without any plan or mental r ehearsal, blood is sure to flow Yours. It s exactly the same technique I watched on a National Geographic film of packs of 6-10 wolves each taking down caribou, deer, elk or even bison in Alaska Unless the prey can outrun the predators not me any more , or back into a corner so there is no real side or rear attack, or grab a weapon, then one is at the mercy of the canines. This never happened to me, though I was bitten biweekly by the Peru Amazon street dogs in various haunts where I walk The two primary fighting techniques were to pick out the alpha usually the biggest male , and charge it ignoring the attempted nips from the rest Once you kick the alpha in the teeth and he whines, the rest retreat In the common case of the fastest dog running around end to get behind you, I always turn and immediately chase it trying to kick it You need to get to it fast because as you turn to face it the rest of the pack rushes your heels That dog is the fastest, usually the bravest, and once it zips off the rest will follow its lead away from your body. Once I got these strategies down, I actually looked forward to the afternoon or night workouts of fighting off the packs after a long stint at the office , and it was restful before going to bed. Sad to say for a veterinarian, I resorted to psychological warfare to turn the tide to keep from going psychologically rabid myself I knew the dog alpha of each of the eight packs in a blink at a block s distance it was usually the biggest male, but nearly as often the stupidest which is to say most fearless, like pit bulls and bulldogs My psych warfare was to stalk them during their sleep, especially during a night rainstorm, and kick them directly in the cranium If you kick in the eye, ear, nose or teeth it can cause permanent damage, but I only wanted to establish myself as their dominant My foot made hard contact about twenty times over the months with the various sleeping alphas, as hard as football punts, but their heads are so hard th at it was like kicking a 8 diameter rock I alternated feet over the weeks waiting for the soreness to go away I have no toenails left on either of my big toes from this. Then the psychological part comes into play a hard head kicked sleeping dog awakes instantly and instinctively turns and bites at the foot There s a split second to kick a second time with the same, or better, the opposite foot, and about one second after your first kick the animal registers pain, the eyes dull, and it withers off yelping in pain with a tucked tail Now is the time to follow it through the rain for blocks, not letting it lie down, rest or sleep for about thirty minutes It s easier than you think because every alpha returns to the same spot after a few minutes, so I just lay in wait, as they have done with me, and keep them awake and moving It s a combination of pain and sleep deprivation, and after a few nights of this, without fail, the alpha will no longer lead the pack in attack Instead, when it sees me coming, it lowers the head in a cowering gesture and sulks off, followed by the rest. That s the time to be on the alert for attacks from street people, who live like them, and empathize in bands I know this from hundreds of encounters with the same packs in the past few months in the Amazon where the dogs have turned nasty with a sudden rise in consciousness of the people who now treat the dogs like second, instead of equal, citizens. These are the techniques to beat fallen canine angels And they worked on people too. Pitt T Maner III suggests. These high frequency deterrents called zappers work fairly well and could be easily shipped to Peru At least it would make an interesting study. Marion Dreyfus writes. When I rented a house on a hilltop at End of The World, Zimbabwe, baboons made increasingly aggressive encroachments toward me and the house I remember saying to the park ranger, who came and shot the baboons dead Once they are no longer afraid of people, they will rip your face off We must kill them to keep that from happening. Andy writes. A recent study on Montana and Wyoming data indicates that killing wolves leads to increased depredation of farm livestock. One theory proposed is that shooting the alpha breaks the discipline of the pack and leads to more independent wolf breeding pairs These rogue lone attackers are more likely to predate livestock than an alpha led pack. The researchers did not find a drop in the depredation until 25 of them were destroyed, which corresponds to their population s rate of increase. The idea for a rancher is to avoid killing the alpha unless he can and will take out more than 25 of the population of the wolves. Tonight I went for my usual 5k walk I plugged in my ear phones and hit my Pandora app and had to decide between my stations I was in the mood for some rock, so I choose the appropriate station, turned the volume to the right level and set off my journey. About 3 4 of the way through my walk, I was heard a special treat The st udio demo version of the Lynyrd Skynyrd s Free Bird. Now, I m sure most, if not all, of you are familiar with that Free Bird It is, IMHO, one of the 3 greatest rock songs of all time the other two being Layla and Stairway to Heaven. But I had never heard the studio demo version before. What is unique about this particular song is how different, yet similar, it is to the album version or the live version I prefer the live version play it pretty for Atlanta. Free Bird starts out as a ballad, but then, kicks into high gear with the famous 1970s style guitar jam. When the studio demo version kicks into high gear, it starts out with the screaming lead guitar for a few moments then the lead guitar stops, and all you hear for the next few minutes are the rhythm guitars. Anyone who knows Free Bird know that lead guitar jams long and hard for at least 5 minutes straight It is an unmistakeable 5 minutes of classic rock guitar licks that anyone with even a passing appreciation of classic rock will know and recognize. But on the demo version, the jam portion is mainly rhythm guitars for almost the entire time. What was very interesting to me is that even though there were only rhythm guitars playing for most of the song, in my head, I could not help but hear the lead guitar even though they were not there. I tried very hard to concentrate on the rhythm guitars and appreciate what I was hearing Heck, I sorta played in garage band in my teens and I played the rhythm portion of Free Bird many times back in the day. But no matter how hard I tried, my mind forced me to hear the absent lead guitar. Listening to this demo version of Free Bird got me thinking about the markets and my investing strategies. How many things happen around me that I just assume are there really aren t in my life as a father or as an investment adviser. When I vet money managers to place my clients money with, how much I am superimposing is that the right word what I think I should be hearing seeing over what is really g oing on. When are there subtle or not so subtle changes that I miss because the meme playing in my head tricks me into hearing seeing what I expect to be there. I m going to refocus myself to see if I m really hearing what I think I m hearing whether there are some missing lead guitar illusions that are clouding my judgement. I pose this question to the group How might one go about doing that. In the meantime s the YouTube link to the demo version of the Free Bird Try and listen to it without hearing the absent lead guitars also, bonus points if you spot the difference in lyrics. And to give some context to those that don t know the song, here s the album version of the same song. And I d be remiss if I didn t include my favorite version of the song play it pretty for Atlanta. And just because it s so tasty, I ll throw in a little semi-obscure Skynyrd hit Curtis Lowe. Leo Jia writes. Reality or illusion I like to study the topic, and learn how to tell the difference or whether there is a differ ence One believes something to be real when the 5 senses send signals to the mind and the mind says thus it is real That is what reality means to most people What if one s 5 senses were altered The mind then has no way to tell Think about virtual reality Though the current technology is not fully there to truly alter the 5 senses, it demonstrates how the mind determines reality Actually, the concept of virtual reality itself tells that there is not a real line between reality and illusion It is all mixed together Do we live in the world or does the world exist within oneself I am more inclined to the latter. Scott Brooks writes. Great points, Leo. I like illusions as well My youngest son is into magic and illusions and does a pretty fun show for kids birthday parties Even though I know how the illusion works, it is still fascinating and fun. But I d like to take it a step deeper I know when I m being tricked when watching my son or a Penn and Teller show But what about when I have no idea that I m being deceived even deeper, when I m the one doing the deceiving, and I m both the deceiver and the mark i e self deception. I d like to know how I can clear my head of those times But do I know what I don t know that I don t know. Rocky s Ghost writes. Excellent post, Scott Thanks for sharing. Rocky believes that, when speculating as distinct from investing , more important than seeing one s own ghosts, is seeing everyone else s ghosts For example, in his early days, Rocky would occasionally find bona fide arbitrages in the options markets However, the ability to monetize the arbitrages relied on OTHER PEOPLE also seeing the arbitrage and closing it If you are the only sane man, you will likely go bankrupt long before others realize that you are the only sane man Or, put another way, when the lunatics are running the asylum, it pays to trade as a lunatic while remaining mindful that they are indeed lunatics Now where did Rocky leave his bottle of Clozapine. All the testing I have done on stops indicates they work exactly as you would expect They reduce risk and they also reduce expected return Sometime they reduce the return to breakeven or negative in which case its better off just not to trade In other cases they eliminate bankruptcy risk and allow for some return, but not the expected return you get without stops It seems to fit right in with EMT, CAPM and practical ideas on markets regarding risk and return If you are selling disaster risk, you expect to be paid for it. Ralph Vince writes. Or, expressed in terms of their effect. Total Return A 2 - V Q 2 - 1.Where A Average return per trade expressed as a multiple, i e 1 0 return. V Variance in the A s. Q total number of A s. When stops reduce V more than they increase A 2, it pays to use them I suggest conducting tests on this, it is far more revealing in terms of the distribution of the A s then meets the rolling eye s when looking at the simple equation. It can be interesting to open up a quote list and view the prices with a mindset that you haven t looked at the market in months or years Oil here, bonds there, etc And then process your initial reaction. The loss of a nail caused the loss of a war It all starts with the horrific having two positions on opposite sides at same time Worse yet is the use of mental stops with the idea that the broker can t read your mind. Andrew Goodwin writes. Voice brokers know the locations of the stops and the times when they will make margin calls or force liquidations The broker does not need to read your particular mind to know the levels that once hit will create more trading activity Mental stops fail because a broker can extrapolate the actionable levels from the inside view of the collective levered positions and stops given by other clients. Thank you for passing along the Constructal Law of Design paper by Adrian Bejan. Bejan s basic premise is that everything in nature is a flow There are the obvious flows of things like water rivers, blood or air lungs, air distributions systems , etc In addition, he discusses flows of stress, for example, in the arrangement of the limbs on a tree, or the flow of animate mass, e g when a herd of animals runs or school of fish swims His premise is that living systems are continuously changing and adapting their configuration to maximize the currents that flow through them Even the building of the Egyptian pyramids, he argues, represents the flow of stones from a broad area to a single point the pyramid Here living systems both animate and inanimate, such as rivers or pyramids being built are constantly evolving and changing their configuration When a system stops reconfiguring its flows, it dies a dried-out river bead, dead animal, or completed pyramid receives no further maintenance, i e there is no more reconfiguration when something is dead. Here is a Q A on the concept of Constructal Design by a Forbes reporter and Bejan that has things described in less technical terms than his paper. In terms of a pplying these concepts to trading, it seems to me that the obvious entity that flows is money. One concern that I have, however, in adapting Bejan s ideas to a trading model is that, in the flows that he is describing, there is always a driving force from high to low gravity pulls water down a landscape, a pressure differential drives air in and out of the lungs, a disturbance or threat forces animals to run in the opposite direction As a result, all of the flows that he is describing are one-way, or unidirectional This central to his entire theory, as the opposite behavior is prohibited from the Second Law of Thermodynamics heat does not move from cold objects to hot on its own, rivers do not flow uphill, air does not come out of the lungs when the diaphragm expands to reduce the pressure in the lungs to draw air in, dropping the broken pieces of a coffee cup on the floor will never result in re-assembled cup, etc. Thus it would seem that a critical element in adapting Bejan s ideas for trading will revolve around describing a driving force for the flow of money This is really your expertise far more than mine, but let me start the dialog by suggesting that the driving force for money is the perceived potential for money growth PPMG Perceived Potential here implies that there is an opportunity to make a profit from an investment, but that the outcome is not necessarily guaranteed think of Enron and Bernie Madoff Reconfiguration, also a key tenant to Bejan s ideas, happens with the flow of money from one instrument to the next If we now draw the analog of a river basin, and that high PPMG is analogous to a low point in the flow of water over a landscape, then it can be seen that money will flow from regions of low potential elevated areas, mountainsides to regions of high potential low areas, valleys The lower the elevation, the more rapidly money will flow into it. What complicates the analysis is that PPMG is a dynamic quantity A company can be very profitable at one point in time Kodak, General Motors, Blackberry , and thus have considerable growth potential, but over time, its growth potential can change This is analogous to the river basin landscape changing constantly in elevation, and having the flow adjust accordingly This does happen in nature as well, of course, both slowly Colorado River Grand Canyon or quickly earthquake volcano Such a time-varying landscape would be important to include in a trading model. I think that the above would be a bare minimum to implement the ideas that Bejan is putting forth I did do a quick search to see if people were using these ideas for trading in particular or finance economics, but I did not find much This is not a surprise Bejan s ideas are new and different and thus will take some time to permeate to other areas This, in itself, is an opportunity to seize the advantage The risk, is, of course, that the ideas may not have significant utility in trading to upset the state-of-the-art now in place, and th us will not pay off after time spent trying to integrate them This is the risk of adopting any new technology idea, I suppose. Anyway, there you have it my rather disjointed ideas on the matter I would be interested to see if Bejan s ideas could prove to be of utility for trading Jon Longtin, Ph D P E Professor Department of Mechanical Engineering 159 Light Engineering Bldg State University of New York at Stony Brook Stony Brook, NY 11794-2300.QEe QE euro seems to be moving forward So why did gold, which has had some strength over the past month, not budge at the news the way currencies did. anonymous writes. The theory I am working on in my head and was hoping to have time to write about tonight is as follows. QE depends upon a central bank cartel all agreeing to do it in unison and or in staggered phases The cartel allows them to get away with this absurd policy without immediately wrecking the currency as compared to other currencies they don t seem to be devaluing. Switzerland broke the cartel. This means that the future of QE is in fact in jeopardy and will be more limited than otherwise. anonymous writes. Isn t that the path off all cartels of 1 players Debeers. Look at OPEC post 1974.Like the prisoner s dilemma, the cartel participant, game would call for a certain, upside price where the first member jumps ship, with a phony justification for their greed trumping the purpose of the cartel. anonymous replies. Yes of course Only in this case instead of restricting the supply, the deal was to expand the supply. In the old days when Kuwait broke from the cartel and cheated it brought oil down more than just by the amount of Kuwait s extra production because once one member of the cartel cheats everyone else is going to. It s the same thing here Once SNB broke, others will be tempted to as well. This isn t talked about in the press because of the insane and incorrect notion that your currency going up is somehow a bad thing, so the mainstream all think that the Swiss are someh ow hurting themselves. Alston Mabry writes. But the alt version is that they weren t playing along because their EUR purchases were putting upward pressure on EUR, counter to ECB s strategy. anonymous replies. What ECB, US, and Japan would have wanted is for the SNB to devalue along with them SNB wasn t going to do that. Now, all of QE depends on the big lie that you are not really printing money and not really devaluing the currency. Any time someone says you re printing money the response is met with you just don t understand followed by a description of the complicated process of QE and how it s not really printing money. But the fallback position for the QE ers is look, there s no inflation no consumer inflation it s in assets and the currency isn t being devalued. The SNB s peg kept the ECB being able to claim they weren t destroying the currency The SNB undoing of the peg reveals that the emperor has no clothes and they are, in fact, going to destroy the currency. Alston Mabry responds. It may be true that claims were made about the EUR on the basis of the CHF cross But I find compelling the narrative that Mario called up Thomas Jordan and said look, unless you re willing to print tens of B of extra SFrs a month, you re not gonna be able to keep up And Jordan, knowing that technically the SNB could do it but politically internally couldn t, said you re right and they dropped the cap. The RSP equal-weighted S P index ETF is well-known Less known is the RYE equal-weighted energy sector ETF It has only existed since about 2006.Equal-weighted ETF s give a larger weighting to smaller-capitalization stocks and, to the extent that individual stocks approach zero, they engage in the Rocky pastime of scaling down to oblivion That is, If cap weighted indices ride the trend, equal-weighted indices sell the winners and add to the losers on each rebalancing. Might anyone have some insights about whether such a practice is inherently superior or inferior over time And especially for a distressed sector index. Kora Reddy writes. But the academic literature suggest otherwise equal-weighting is a contrarian strategy that exploits the reversal in stock prices see this pic. Except in Australia, equi-weighted outperformed the cap-weighted in major countries. Gordon Haave writes. I wrote about this 6-7 years ago when the first Wisdom Tree stuff came out and they were talking about how equal weighted was superior to cap weighted and showed the back-tested numbers All they were really saying is that over time small caps beat large caps which isn t exactly news. To call a equal weighted index and index is itself misleading A cap weighted index is the market or some approximation thereof Theoretically every single market player could go passive and be in it You can t do that with an equal weighted index or at least not without distorting prices. As to your idea of how they have to double down on the loses that is somewhat limited by the fact that once the name falls out of the index it is dropped. Larry Williams comments. Along that line Our work shows it is better to invest equal dollar amounts vs equal share amounts. Gibbons Burke adds. I know a fund which used to invest 90 of client stake in SPX via SPY A couple of years ago they switched to 10 equal dollar investment in each of the nine sector select spdr ETFs, with the intent of rebalancing to equal dollar allocation annually They found, in testing, the strategy provided an average of 200 bps of boost each year over the cap-weighted all-SPY investment. anonymous writes. Regarding a depressed sector, is there any truth to the adage Buy the stock that has gone down the least, and also the one that has gone down the most The strong stock will come back smartly and the oversold weak stock will come up from being smashed on a higher percentage then the middle of the pack. So if this is true you could design your own basket of strong stock leaders in the depressed sector mixed with oversold beaten down stocks that pass a screening survival test. Erich Eppelbaum adds. Theoretically speaking, re-balancing a portfolio by using the winnings to buy more of the losers is at the heart of the only portfolio selection methodology that I know of that mathematically guarantees to asymptotically outperform the best stock included in the portfolio See Thomas Cover s Universal Portfolio seminal 1991 paper pdf link. I don t know if in real life the portfolios resulting from this methodology are inferior or superior over time to those created by rebalancing based on allocating more to the winners such as a market cap weighted portfolio I would assume that any result would depend heavily on the rebalancing costs and slippage the liquidity of big vs small stocks matter, especially when trying to push size , and I would assume that the slippage incurred in a market cap weighted portfolio would be less than that incurred in a equal weight portfolio less small company shares to buy sell. In reference to a previous post, anoth er thing to consider is that perhaps there are many effects at play other than the small-cap more-risk-more-reward effect For example, a sell-the-winners-buy-the-losers methodology could be profiting partly by say the volatility harvesting effect described by Claude Shannon. This brings up another question The volatility harvesting effect becomes greater as the volatility of the portfolio s underlying stocks increases In the stock market, volatility usually increases when the market falls Could this mean that an equal weighted rebalanced portfolio would outperform a market cap weighted portfolio during bad times and would the opposite be true during good times Would be interesting to test. I make an unapologetic forecast that by Friday, the EU thumb-sucking backscratchers in the markets will realize that Draghi must resign. The emperor has no clothes. Hello USD EUR parity. Stefan Martinek writes. My unapologetic forecast is that USD EUR will go below parity and somewhere around 0 6-0 8 Germa n voters will decide to leave the party Euro is too strong for weak members, and too weak for strong ones it does not fit anybody Political will will change and the path of least resistance will change as well Nothing dramatic will happen at that point The world will function as usual, Schengen area will stay in place, winter resorts in Alps will be nice and functioning Most forecast are usually wrong. The Swiss National Bank SNB in a way played a good game of 3 Card Monty the past few years with market participants The winning card was where the rate was going to be On September 6, 2011 the SNB set a peg for the EuroSwiss rate at 1 2 when prevailing market rates where approximately 1 1, a depreciation of the Swiss Franc of about 9 Between September 6, 2011 and January 15, 2015 the EuroSwiss rate traded between 1 20 and 1 2650, a roughly 5 range On January 15, 2015 the SNB removed the 1 2 floor and at the extreme the EuroSwiss market rate went close to 8500, a move of about 30 Who playe d the game Who controlled the cards Who were the shills I could not help but recall my own adventures in 3 Card Monty and loss of a 50 bill as a student playing Holden Caulfield in Times Square circa 1983.What trading lessons might there be in the move by the SNB and subsequent moves in markets How can these lessons be embodied to provide a future playbook of offensive and defensive plans Following some delirium from trading the markets the past few days some clarity came to mind on some runs the past day or two First, some empathy to all have may lost in the market this past week One close friend of many years described the feeling just 30 minutes after the SNB decision by saying I feel like I just got my leg blown off, I can barely think straight.10 rules, lessons, and examples I have found effective and illustrative.1 Find and trade markets where your edge is the greatest 2 Avoid markets were the probability of rule changes and lack of transparency is present 3 Think of and imagine market scenarios others fail to 4 Fundamental macroeconomic forces will ultimately prevail 5 Trading time frames and profit objectives though must coincide with what the market is giving you at any one time 6 Quantify risk with a multidimensional perspective, not just by one or two measures such as VAR or a price stop 7 Learn from history Jay Gould and his attempts to corner the gold markets in the late 1860 s The Russian default of 1917 and 1998 The European Rate Mechanism break up The Tequila crisis of 1994 The Asian financial crisis 8 Be deadly serious, as Gichin Funakoshi said You must be deadly serious in training If you have a position make it a meaningful size and monitor it carefully I recall many comments from fellow traders the past few years saying something like I am long EuroSwiss just to have some on but not really watching it 9 Define and use a trading methodology that incorporates a process and framework that works for you Inclusive in this should be a daily routine tha t includes diet, exercise, family time, etc 10 Seek out catalysts for CHANGE in markets Where are the forces, in a Newtonian like law of motion, building up the greatest to cause a CHANGE and movement in markets. What further elaborations and examples might there be. Stefan Martinek writes. I was thinking about it recently Great list I would only add a Be prepared that liquidity in any market can disappear regardless of historical data or experience b Mind counterparty risk. Anatoly Veltman writes. Excellent lessons from John The dilemma here is of common variety, though Similar to an individual smaller stock you re either an insider, or a mark In case of the SNB last few years you were either in bed with the devil, or you were exposed to a chance of a -100000 annualized loss on any given random day. My recollection of the marketing pitches for retail focused FX platforms was that they had some parallels to the bucket shops described by LeFevre, particularly one of them who advertised that o ne of your account features could be no margin calls If a position went against you by a particular threshold, the broker would automatically close it out, so you would have no surprises. anonymous writes. FXCM stock a listed US company is indicated down 75 this morning They issued a statement that the CHF move generated negative equity balances owed to FXCM of approximately 225 million. As of 9 30 14, their stated equity book value was 262 7 million source Bloomberg so if their book value is real then this particular problem can be contained. Interactive Brokers stock is indicated down 10 this morning They have made no public statements so far But as we ve seen time and again, broker-dealers rely on customer confidence and should a large number of customers start withdrawing collateral, this could spiral Hence silence isn t golden. Ed Stewart writes. A few things about IBKR. First, is is a much more highly capitalized than financial statements at first suggest, as only 15 of the company trad es on the exchange, the rest is owned by managers and mostly, if i recall 75 by CEO Peterffy As of the last quarterly report, excess regulatory capital stood at 3 25B S P credit rating A - Stable, zero long term debt. Anyone who has traded there is aware that relative to other brokers they are very conservative on margining issues, etc Also, they don t have the business model of bucketing all of the trades on their FX platform like most retail platforms do The IB FX ecn mostly allows IB customers to trade with other IB customers and other banks, though they are also a market maker there In other words it is a much, much stronger business than the crappy retail FX companies. The other issue that is hitting the company recently hurt their results last quarter and almost certainly this quarter Is that they keep their equity in a basket of 16 currencies that they call the GLOBAL, so they are getting hit by the strong dollar. I could be wrong I think a currency peg blowing up is the kind of thi ng their risk department and peterffy would identify as a risk and substantially mitigate, especially if they had retail traders trading in masse against the peg the way the other forex platforms had This is based on my reading most of Peterffy s writing and conference calls over the last few years, I could be dead wrong. If there is a bad quarter out of this but the damage is not too bad I think it might end up a solid buying opportunity It was my largest stock holding in tax deferred accounts till yesterday when I dumped most of it. Garrett Baldwin adds. Global Brokers NZ has failed and Alpari U K is insolvent. anonymous writes. What am I missing Why should a retail broker go under because a currency moved Were they trading against their customers as opposed to just executing orders. Anatoly Veltman writes. If they don t call for margin, they end up owning position How could they do anything with a position thru the entire initial bidless 20 gap They obviously did rush to liquidate on the s mall bounce and that s how the new low was made look up intraday chart. Here s a very interesting scholarly paper from some wheat counters.83 years ago It s a very good read, and appropriate for the time, but government interactions in the grain markets, wars, and international trade have rendered much of this obsolete Still, it s a good picture of the level of scholarship that was applied to the wheat markets 83 years ago Much has changed from then to now, but one thing never changes The best and brightest of any generation will always drill down, and try to find a way to beat a single market.1 The Swiss franc is up about 17 this morning This is unprecedented in recent history That is a BLACK SWAN A BLACK SWAN is an event that you have not read to be predicted on Zero Hedge or anywhere else This cannot happen without reverberations and could be destabilizing and volatility inducing in unexpected places.2 This could be the ultimate no-confidence vote in the Euro currency.3 It makes Bitc oin s move of 23 yesterday look quaint. anonymous writes. The most obvious conclusions to draw.1 Further downward pressure on the Euro currency 2 Further downward pressure on global yield curves 3 Further loss of confidence in central banks. More derivative thoughts to consider. a Impact of forced liquidation of short CHF trades and potential subsequent reduction in risk and positions b Impact on CHF funding trades in places like Hungary and Poland c Impact on Swiss economy given where the currency and rates settle d Impact on SNB flows e Impact on ECB meeting next week in terms of QE. The Fundamental Dilemma of all market manipulation, whether legal as in this case or illegal when you stop pushing up the value of an asset, it falls back, giving you mark to market losses on your inventory Today the SNB is taking tremendous losses on the Euro assets it has accumulated in its Euro buying binge I would not want to be a private shareholder of the SNB or a swiss taxpayer on a day like this. Speak ing of round numbers, the euro swiss must want to end up close to parity of 1 It will make it so much easier to do all the conversion at Davos. I notice that the Dow is down already and I note that gas is 1 86 this morning overnight from 1 92 here in Southern Ohio Many empty rentals around my area Many people, due to oil production in my area, have been been priced out of renting I have several empty units but have found over the years people don t move over the holidays nor the cold winter months unless evicted or just moving into the area. A complete background check will sort through any of those issues. Gary Rogan writes. There is enormous destruction going on of all kinds of daring, innovative oil drillers, the best of the best, which will produce damage that may last many years, as well as many traditional oil, infrastructure, transportation, etc, etc, companies but all people care about is the price of gas Isn t that selfish. Pitt T Maner III writes. It will be interesting to see the impacts to natural gas supplies as the number of drill rigs in operation decreases. In fact, the current natural gas rig count remains 80 below its all-time high of 1,606 reached in late summer 2008 In the year-ago period, there were 372 active natural gas rigs. This paper gives an idea of the relationship between drilling new wells and production. Talking to a friend If a year ago somebody had said just put everything in zeroes and utilities and then forget about it until January 2015, what would we have thought of that suggestion. And then I wondered What is it now that would sound just as stupid. As the days lengthen and the crocuses bloom, as the buzz of spring approaches, one s thoughts turn to the icon of the warmer times of the year baseball. Over the weekend, I was talking to a neighbor about the coming season, and he commented about the changing styles of ballparks and their effect on the game and how it s played Consider Yankee Stadium is often referred to as the House that Ruth Bu ilt I had always understood that to be a reference to the size of the ballpark When it opened in 1923, Yankee Stadium was 60-70 percent bigger in seating than other ballparks accommodating the fan interest in the King of Swat But one could argue that the moniker The House that Ruth Built was as much about the dimensions of the field as about the size of the stands Yankee Stadium had incredibly shallow depths along the foul lines under 300 feet While no one would question Ruth s ability to belt out home runs, the quantity of those hit at home was likely aided by the short distance to the foul pole Perhaps that s the reason Ruth s and Gehrig s power is shown so well in extra base hits Those aren t helped so much by a shortened outfieldpare Jacobs Field now Progressive Field in Cleveland, or Oriole Park at Camden Yards, with 320-330 along the foul lines The short lines were not strictly a Yankee Stadium characeteristic Ebbets Field and Fenway Park, for instance, both had similarly short f oul lines Big difference It wasn t until 1958, tough, that dimensions like those of Yankee Stadium would be considered unacceptable under the MLB rules for new ball parks. As we were talking, I thought about the different eras in the construction of baseball parks There was first the innovator era, when the owners built the parks and often named the parks for themselves Wrigley Field, for instance, named for the owner of the Cubs who play there Not that Wrigley built the park, he just named it after himself during the late 1920s Comiskey Park was built and named for the White Sox owner, Ebbetts Field in Brooklyn, Griffith Stadium Washington Senators , Shibe Park renamed Connie Mack Stadium Philadelphia As , and so on Not all were so named, though Forbes Field in Pittsburgh, for instance, was named for the soldier in the French and Indian War who named the city It was in this cohort of ballpark that the classical design took hold It would hold sway until after World War 2, when the next era of ballparks would arrive, typified by Memorial Stadium The Old Grey Lady on 33rd Street or The World s Largest Outdoor Insane Assylum, take your pick in Baltimore At one time, at 34th and Charles Streets, by the Entrance to Johns Hopkins s Homewood campus, there was a bust of Johns Hopkins on an island in the street. When Memorial Stadium opened, so the story goes, there was such confusion about where the stadium was many drivers thinking the bust was for some athlete, insisted on turning onto 34th Street, with lots of accidents, as the traffic signals were not set for lots of left turning traffic many drivers jumping the light that the bust was moved to the side of the road At least that was the story on the Homewood campus, particularly the university s historian during the centennial commemoration of its founding. This new cohort of ballparks was designed for mixed use not as a ballpark for which some other sport might be tolerated That meant some compromises They still abided by the general feel of the first round the owners round of parks Bricks and such, but they also started strut some steel materials were used to have the ballparks fit in with the surrounding community, though how something as big could fit in isn t so straightforward One other interesting feature to this round Unlike the prior round, in which the teams financed the construction of the park, now municipalities were doing so Perhaps that was the beginning of the myth that ballparks pay for themselves. At least for the baseball season, with 81 games played, I can see how there might at least be an argument for economic benefit, but for football In any case, this round of ballparks lasted into the 1960s It may not harken the same loyalty that the owners round would but when the baby boomers went to the park, it was as often as not one of the newer parks, and so the newer parks were embedded with pleasant memories in their brains, unless of course they were Senators fans, in which case I can t talk about any association of pleasantry since my recollection of the Senators in that era was of a team more consistent with A-AA ball than the big show And some days, sandlot might be applicable except when Frank Howard was hitting well they didn t look so bad then even the defense seemingly performed on those days. width 392 height 232 The Astrodome ushered in the modern era of ballparks It was domed that was new It had a space age look befitting its location in Houston that was new It was big that was new well, it was in Texas No longer would the fans enjoy the proximity to the field of the earlier eras Houston being a major petrochemical center, it s not surprising that the Astrodome also ushered in Astroturf, a plastic pseudograss that bears as much similarity to its living counterpart as an aluminum Christmas tree does to the living or at least formerly living one or if you prefer, ox to bull, or McDonald s shake to those available at many of the remaining diners still operating in the US I ll leave aside the issue of whether real baseball can be played on pseudograss a field lacking the sweet scent of mowed green blades, all in support of that most pristine shape in sports, the baseball diamond or has to be played on the real thing to qualify as real baseball There are also variations on thi s theme for instance, no dome, or a retrievable cover. Perhaps the peak of the third age can be found in the Hubert H Humphrey Metrodome, know affectionately in the Twin Cities, prior to its demise, as the West Bank Marshmallow It may remain as the only site in which an MLB game was snowed out by a 15 inch blizzard on May 15, 1986 without a snowflake ever touching the field The Metrodome was a hitter s paradise Four baggers would go flying out faster than an F-18 off a carrier Maybe that s why Kirby Puckett liked playing for the Twins so much Regardless, while there are many who probably liked the Metrodome, it always struck me as sterile Indeed, that s my complaint about the third age the ballparks lacked character, identity There was one thing I liked about the Metrodome, though it was right by downtown That was not a universal characteristic It wasn t a feature of ballparks until the fourth era, the one we are still in. In the fourth era, ballparks went back to the early 1900s to take their style cues Sure, modern engineering enhanced the experience, with unobstructed views And there were the skyboxes, rights to which flowed to the team s bottom line But with the style going back to the classic one of the early 20th century, one might term it retro Fans like the effect Ballparks built over the past two decades have been designed in the retro style Bricks, old style grillwork, often located near downtowns, and so on Character was not absent in these places The trend started with the building of Oriole Park at Camden Yards Oriole Park was part of a grander scheme to revitalize Baltimore s downtown First, there was Harborplace, then the Aquarium site of Willy Don s battle with the sea lions in 1981 And then, nothing There were a few apartment houses built, a convention center, but not much else Downtown Baltimore still felt incomplete. With the departure of the Colts in 1984, scurrying like a thief in the night at the end of March that year, with snow flurries in the a ir and a Governor whose campaign theme of honest government seemed to think that it prohibited him from intervening, Baltimore s city elders realized the risks of the Orioles leaving Baltimore I m not sure the name would have moved as easily as Colts did were there, and needed to be addressed Back in the late 1970s, the Os owner, Edward Bennett Williams, complained that it took too long to get from Memorial Stadium back to DC and that Baltimore alone was too small of a market to support a baseball team Enter the Mayor, who had the police tail Williams back to DC for the next three games that he attended When Williams next complained about the troubles of leaving 33rd Street, he was met by the Mayor noting how quickly Williams made it back to his DC office not noted was the speed that Williams s limousine took to achieve those times, nor the anger among the State police that Williams a defense attorney that they were under strict orders not to issue a speeding ticket to that car William s never complained about it again So the city elders caucused as they were wont to do, and they decided that Memorial Stadium, beloved as she was, likely was near the end of her useful life Barely 30, and washed up Thus began the planning for a new ballpark in downtown Baltimore, around which further downtown development would happen There was mass transit emerging in the city though why Baltimore needed a subway is beyond me , and I-95 right next door to facilitate ingress and egress That was the plan, at any rate It took a few years to get all the plans in place, but when Camden Yards was finished, it was magnificent So much so that it kicked off the retro trend. One of the nicest ballparks built with the retro theme is AT T Park, the replacement for Candlestick Part in San Francisco AT T was built in part because not only was Candlestick not economically competitive in terms of skyboxes and the like but it was arguably the worst located park in the MLB The winds off of San Francisco Bay would howl in the summer, so much that Fisherman s Wharf and the Presidio seemed warm even during the summer Had the park been built a mere 75 or so yards to the west, the winds would have been less of an issue Ditto for orientation The fog that enveloped Candlestick during night games was legendary not only for the associated temperature drops, but also the challenges it presented to the player, particularly in the outfield One of the Alou brothers once noted that at Candlestick, you could see the pitcher throw the ball, you could see the batter hit the ball, but from then until the ball came down, the fielder had to rely on instinct you just couldn t see the ball all the way through the air This was the place, after all, where Stu Miller he died a little over a week ago was called for a balk during the 1961 All Star game played at the spanking new Candlestick Park Miller always contended he hadn t balked No matter, that s how it was scored Of course, many of the pre-retro parks a re beloved by the fans Dodger Stadium at Chavez Ravine is a great example Woe to the visiting team fan at Dodger Stadium Watching Koufax pitch at home was a delight, but the fans like the ambiance of the ball park itself. There are 37 more days before Orioles pitchers and catchers report. The recent events at Petrobras have taken the investment community by storm, and there is much discussion about when the right time is to get in Bulls figure that given the reserves and the potential that the current price is cheap and will work out well in the long term despite the current scandals I am usually an asset based contrarian, but in this case I am not so sure Let me give you my perspective. I ve worked at both Devon and Kerr-Mcgee and had many friends at Chesapeake. To preface this post, I have never been a fan of management guru books and find them to mostly be trash with little insight That being said, an excellent book could be written about the resurgence of Oklahoma City and the contrast ing fortunes of Kerr-McGee, Devon, and the one-time high-flying Chesapeake Energy over the years and the differing management styles at each company Perhaps I should write it However with the protagonist of this post now working for one of the antagonists the final chapter cannot yet be written. If you don t want to read a few thousand words and just want the punchline it is this Management and management culture matters, and Devon s former CFO Jeff Agosta is one of the main reasons for Devon s success whereas Kerr-McGee has disappeared and Chesapeake goes through recurring crises Interestingly enough, Jeff is no longer at Devon and now works for former Chesapeake founder Aubrey McClendon s new company, American Energy Partners I will write more on that later on in this post. The story for me begins in the mid to late 1990 s when I was working for my father s money management firm Chesapeake CHK was a high flying driller based on horizontal drilling in the Austin Chalk. Wall Street was he avily promoting CHK and it was one of the biggest momentum plays on the street My father didn t believe it Frankly, anyone with experience in the austin chalk knew that the decline curves were massive This time it was supposed to be different because of CHK s horizontal drilling Horizontal drilling, however, wasn t going to change the nature of the austin chalk as a play, it was just going to make the initial production bigger The problem however was that these were new wells and there wasn t much history. At the time getting well data was a pain We had to subscribe to a Petroleum Institute service for around 10,000 dollars per year that sent us CD s with county well data from Louisiana which was months out of date Sure enough, the decline curves were massive We talked to wall street analysts, and of course they didn t care CHK was everyone s favorite. A few years later CHK almost went out of business as sure enough the decline curves were massive That was the first time I heard the name Aubrey McClendon. The next time was the summer of 2003 I was sitting at my desk at the Zurich office of Kerr-McGee Luxembourg, thank you IRS for creating such inefficiencies I had very little to do I was in Zurich for 2 months for a paid internship that was put together at the last minute because the employee whose job I was doing had a stroke and Kerr-McGee needed someone to take his place while he recovered. The head of the office was an American hired in 1999 a rare outside the ranks hire The rest of the staff was Swiss and or German The European marketing team from the Chemicals unit later spun off as Tronox also shared these offices European Chemicals marketing was run by a Kerr-Mcgee old timer who was one of the few still around from the Karen Silkwood days. The first sign that Kerr-McGee had issues was that I didn t really have anything to do all day By and large I was done with my job by 10am In addition to my day job I was given a project to research the possibility of issuing e uro-denominated bonds in Europe The project didn t take long Other than that I had a lot of spare time Someone in IT at the main office in Oklahoma City seemed to have the sole job of tracking my web surfing and blocking every site that wasn t work or finance related. The Swiss like to take long lunches and usually have a few beers at lunch as well A directive had come down from HQ that nobody was allowed to drink at lunch but my boss told us to do what I wanted as long as he didn t see it So, sometimes we would take 90 minute lunches by the seaside and have a couple of beers, but that still left the entire afternoon with little to do I had brought a lot of textbooks with me to Zurich to study finance and economics but I burned through those pretty quickly. If I could do it all over again I would have spent the time learning German, although it was also when I first started to really study body language as I could not communicate verbally It is really the subject of another post but from my time in Panama, Switzerland, Italy, Albania, Poland, etc I have become somewhat of an expert in reading body language Body language doesn t lie People do I now like to sit in restaurants and watch body language It is fun to spot which woman doesn t like her date and just wants to get out of there as quickly as possible even vs which guy is going to get lucky that night I m also good now at knowing when I am being lied to - although I have had a few spectacular failures in that regard. Back to Zurich So I started spending my spare time looking for a permanent job Simply searching energy companies in Oklahoma City got by my IT censors and I quickly gathered up the names of all the big energies companies and their officers By googling around the domain names you can always come up with the structure of corporate email addresses i e or whatever because some employee somewhere has always used his or her work address to post on a random message board. So I sent out some emails to some Okla homa City energy company executives The emails read as follows. Hello, my name is Gordon Haave I am currently working for Kerr-McGee in Zurich in the corporate Treasury department Previously I have served as Vice-President of a 300 million money management firm and as the CFO of a 20 million residential construction firm I am returning to Oklahoma City in August and am looking for a full time job if you have any available. Short and simple appeals work with some people and not with others I got replies from both Jeff Agosta then SVP of Finance and Treasurer of Devon and Aubrey Mclendon CEO of Chesapeake Aubrey was very nice as everyone always says he is We had a brief back and forth and after inquiring around the company he told me that there was nothing available but to stay in touch. Jeff responded basically with a yes we are looking for someone, come and see me when you get back to Oklahoma That s how I ended up working for Devon. However, I was still working at Kerr-Mcgee Every day was frustrating as there was little to do, and everything I did have to do basically had zero value added Let me explain. My primary job was ensuring the accurate cash forecast of Kerr-McGee s North Sea oil and gas operations, and to ensure that cash balances were kept at a minimum so that they could be invested in time deposits In the morning I had to make sure time deposits were properly received that were due that day, and in the afternoon all cash had to be swept up into new time deposits These were often overnight or just 2-3 day investments. The process was based off of the weekly cash forecast which was stored on the Kerr-McGee mainframe and accessed by everyone via Citrix The weekly forecast started on Monday at the operating units The operators would have to forecast DOWN TO THE PENNY every single expenditure or receipt they knew about At the end of the day Monday the information would go to one higher level up, where it would be compiled It would then move on to one level higher u p on Wednesday to a treasury analyst for that unit On Thursday morning I had all of the information for every unit and would complete the overall spreadsheet which presumably someone reviewed on Friday It was a pain-staking process that took the time of at least 10 people over the course of the week to do And to what end. Of course a Treasury department needs to be able to forecast cash, but down to the penny There were times where somewhere along the way the info would be recalled because someone let out an anticipated 500 expenditure What difference did it make if 500 was invested one day or two days. Ideally if you have the exact cash balance down to the penny you can invest better For example, if you have 1 million dollars extra and you know you can invest it for and extra 4-5 days instead of just overnight you will earn more interest But how much Enough to have 10 people working on the thing Enough to harass operating units into worrying about that instead of worrying about their op erations Of course not. I once said something to my boss about it and his response was you are lucky, when I first started here they were doing this by carbon paper and fedexed around We only changed to spreadsheet because they couldn t buy the carbon paper anymore. I was in a good position to learn many other things about the corporate culture As the young American guy there by myself the chemicals sales force guys would take me out at night on their expense accounts when they passed through town and they expressed how hampered they were by the corporate culture. Also, at the time, Kerr-McGee was spending literally millions of dollars per year on outside consultants whose job it was to change the corporate culture One of these consultants spent a week or so in Zurich and I went out to eat and have a few drinks with him a few times I ll spare you the details of the horror stories but his conclusion was pretty straight-forward It s utterly hopeless. I don t want to name names but I remarked to him once that a certain person in our division seemed to be the real brains of the operation, yet he was not the head of it and I was wondering why The answer Because X joined the company two weeks later than Y 20 years ago. So let s review what I learned about Kerr-Mcgee. A A massive number of employees doing useless jobs. B A culture where seniority is all that matters. C The corporate tail wagging the operating dog After Kerr-McGee it was on to Devon in Jeff Agosta s unit I ran the cash management function which included the investment of excess assets as my primary job but I also performed as somewhat of an overflow worker for other corporate finance projects as needed. What was the corporate culture at Devon Well, it depends on what part of it you worked in In accounting it was just as bad as as Kerr-McGee There were massive, bloated staffs of people who did their job the way they did it and simply wanted it to stay that way and didn t want anything to change That didn t really mat ter too much except that corporate expenses were higher than they should be and landowners would be pissed off because they got their checks late More than a few times in social settings when telling someone I worked at Devon the response would be why can t you send your checks on time. Corporate finance, however was a lean and mean operating machine We had less people performing the finance and treasury functions than Kerr-McGee had working on the weekly cash forecast - and we did a good job of it too This was all under Jeff s leadership and direction. How did the cash forecast work. When I started there was already a cash forecast spreadsheet which I later revamped Here is how it worked. We pulled production estimates from an existing database We pulled gas and oil prices from Bloomberg and applied a discount to them for what Devon would actually receive for oil and gas sales. We knew corporate overhead data and when payroll was due, and we knew interest and swap payments already. As to th e level of accuracy achieved it was pretty straightforward The conversation went something lie this. Me Jeff, given interest rates and what we can do with extra cash in terms of investments or lack thereof and the manpower that we will have to expend in order to get a more detailed forecast it is cheaper to just leave an extra 100 million laying around than expend the effort to harass people so that we can do more detailed forecasts like Kerr-McGee does Plus, we don t have to harass people who have other things they are working on. And that was that. A rational and efficient decision was made, without regard to how things are always done and taking into account that there is no need to be harassing operating units. Not harassing the operating units was a theme that Jeff reinforced a few times. I recall one event when a decision was made by an operating unit to bid on some blocks off of Brazil The email I got was basically We have to have 40 million dollars in an account in Brazil in three d ays The 40 million wasn t a problem - remember we always had more than that just laying around The problem was opening the account This is was after 9 11 and the government was imposing all sorts of new Know Your Customer rules on the banks. To open the account Bank of America wanted endless documentation that there was basically know way I could do within 3 days In the end I just said to our representative at B of A look, this is Devon energy opening an account for a Devon subsidiary, we have 120 accounts with you This account need to be opening tomorrow I will send you whatever documentation you want later, but this account has to be open tomorrow If you don t know your customer well enough to open the account then we will have to find someone who does. He opened the account. At some point during or after this event I said to Jeff Hey, these guys the operating unit really have to give us more heads up next time Jeff s response was It is fine for you to send them an email asking them to give you a better heads up when they can, but always remember they are the one s who make the money We work for them, not the other way around Meanwhile let s get back to Chesapeake Aubrey McClendon the well liked and flamboyant founder had his own management approach I can t speak too much to the internal culture as I was not a part of it, but Aubrey was generally highly regarded by his employees The problem was as follows He ran the company like it was his own as opposed to running it on behalf of the shareholders. Although it is difficult to quantify this was apparent by the massive amount of money that Chesapeake through around the community in what appeared to me to be one big dose of self-promotion Chesapeake funding was all over Oklahoma City, and the news articles praising McClendon were legion as he achieved celebrity status Companies need to distribute money in their communities from time to time for their long run success, but Chesapeake s giving far outstripped anything Devo n or Kerr-McGee was doing I was constantly thinking to myself I wonder how any of this benefits shareholders. Later events that are quantifiable proved me correct that indeed the company was being run in his own interested instead of the interest of the shareholders. In short, McClendon has a sweetheart deal where, after shareholders paid to acquire land McClendon got an ownership stake of 2 5 of every well drilled He had to pay 2 5 of the drilling costs How did he come up with the 2 5 He borrowed against his interest in the wells. Here is the problem with that.1 McClendon was competing with Chesapeake for access to capital.2 Let s say the price of natural gas goes down and Chesapeake needed to curtail it s drilling or shut-in some wells What decision should be made Well, if McClendon has massive personal interest payments to make on his personal debt, he suddenly has a conflict of interest with the company. McClendon of course denied any conflict of interest, but it is ludicrous to believ e that shareholders ever would have approved such a situation had they known about it One defense perhaps is that the board of directors who represent the shareholders knew, but this is the same board of directors that bailed McClendon out of his personal financial problems buy buying his private map collection from him and awarding him a massive bonus while Chesapeake s own fortunes were in decline. In addition McClendon was using CHK employees to do personal work for him and also never disclosed that he had a hedge fund on the side which traded in the same energy markets that CHK did. In short, he ran the company on behalf of himself, instead of on behalf of the shareholders. To contrast this behavior to what I saw at Devon One time a senior manager operating out of Houston donated 10,000 to a charity without prior approval As Jeff relayed to me the manager was told that is the shareholders money, either get it back or pay it back yourself. All of this leads to an interesting situation. A ubrey McClendon is the last person in the world I would want to look after my interests as a shareholder Jeff Agosta is the first. Now, Jeff works for Aubrey. In January 2014 Jeff was fired as the CFO at Devon I don t know the scoop and have not spoken to Jeff in 6 years, but as someone with more knowledge than I do tells me. He f d up on a forecast reporting issue, plus he alienated virtually everyone who worked under him with his management style, it seems. I have no idea myself, but that he might have alienated people under him would not be a surprise I for one liked working in his unit With Jeff would always knew where you stood If you did a good job you knew it, and if you did a bad job you knew it Not everyone is like me however Some people care more about the 5 minutes of pleasantries that need to occur when a conversation starts and need criticism of their idea in a roundabout manner Jeff was not that guy. More importantly, I would bet that Jeff attempted to impose his efficiency vi ewpoint on the rest of the company and got a lot of pushback. American Energy Partners is said to be getting ready for an IPO My advice figure out who is really calling the shots on the finances If it is McClendon then take a pass If it is Agosta then go for it if you otherwise like the company and it s valuation. So what does all this have to do with Petrobras In the end and after years and years of attempted reform Kerr-McGee called it quits The stock had basically gone nowhere for 20 years and eventually the chemicals unit was spun off and the Oil Gas assets sold to Anadarko The archaic corporate culture just couldn t be overcome. In all companies the allocation of capital is incredibly important The difference between Energy companies and many other companies is that the economic consequences few key decisions will be apparent in short order Proctor and Gamble can make bad decisions and the result will just be a slow decline in overall market share over a long period of time - this is not the case with an energy company. Petrobras can have all of the reserves in the world, but if management and the corporate culture are no good shareholders will never realize a profit from it. On December 20, 2011, at 9 38am, Jeffrey Buckalew, a successful investment banker and pilot, departed Teterboro, NJ bound for Atlanta in his Socata TBM 700 turboprop along with his wife, their two children, a business associate and the family dog By 10 05, they were all dead. The NTSB declared the probable cause s of the accident to be. The airplane s encounter with unforecasted severe icing conditions that were characterized by high ice accretion rates and the pilot s failure to use his command authority to depart the icing conditions in an expeditious manner, which resulted in a loss of airplane control. Happily, I wasn t working that morning, but I worked that sector for 25 years and the controller who was working the aircraft when it went down is a friend of mine. The accident highlights a coup le of issues that are highly relevant to trading First, the threat of complacency which can lead to a failure to recognize that a dangerous situation is developing, and second, the need to take action to correct the situation immediately We must be vigilant and nimble This excellent video by AOPA s Air Safety Institute gives a thorough discussion of the accident and its causes I was particularly keen on the last two minutes or so transcribed below and it s insights In the first paragraph, replace the word aircraft with systems and aviation and flying with trading and you can see what I mean. Sometimes experience harms more than it helps Rather than making us more vigilant, it can lead to a sort of comfortable complacency, not only about the dangers we face, but about our own capabilities and those of our aircraft Complacency is arguably aviation s most common vice, and one of the hard truths about flying is that it s sometimes punished with extraordinary severity. The pilot of N731CA was in the clouds for a total of approximately five minutes Roughly two minutes passed between his first indication to ATC that icing was a problem and the beginning of the final plunge. It takes time for the human mind to spin up when suddenly confronted with a problem It takes time to recognize that things have changed and process the idea that an extraordinary response is called for All during that time, part of the mind is fighting against the new reality, arguing stay the course. Two minutes isn t much time, but it s enough time Enough time to make a decision, declare an emergency and reverse the climb Or, just push the nose over and worry about ATC later. Or at least, that s what we d like to think The truth of the matter, which is that two minutes really isn t much time for someone who is surprised, conflicted and almost certainly frightened, is decidedly less comforting. Anatoly Veltman writes. Yes, there is an adage that biggest losses come immediately following biggest gains It s als o possible that big gains may follow big gains My explanation is that what brought the initial big gains was the increase in volatility. Gary Rogan writes. So if either big losses or big gains follow big gains what is one supposed to do after big gains. Stefan Martinek adds. Theoretically, we should de-leverage and adjust for volatility I assume our initial position was volatility normalized Practically, doing nothing and ignore some vol spike usually does not hurt as much as believed especially for long vol strategies Exit adjustment is therefore different if strategy does well in storms or if it is killed by storms Some trading storms are good. The notion that the United States has had a two-party system over the last hundred years is largely a fantasy This may be another successful schoolteacher fairy tale designed to discourage conservatives from having any patience with the minority party it may be simply part of the American notion that the two teams on on the field have an equal chan ce that is to be determined by how much they want it Either way, the fantasy of equal competition does not fit the facts The Republicans have only won the trophy once in the last hundred years - in 1928 That was the only time where the Republicans continued to control both houses of Congress as a member of their party was re-elected President The results were these Republican House margin of majority 12 , Republican Senate margin of majority including Vice-President s vote in the event of a tie 10.The Democrats, on the other hand, have 4 Super Bowl rings 1936, 1940, 1944, and 1964 Their first - Roosevelt s 2nd election - was the biggest blowout Democratic House margin of majority 30 , Democratic Senate margin of majority including Vice-President s vote in the event of a tie 34.Even in the era of divided government and less than landslide elections, the drift has remained in favor of the Democratic party.2008 election results - Democratic House margin of majority 19 , Democratic Senate margin of majority including Vice-President s vote in the event of a tie 21.2014 election results - Republican House margin of majority 17 , Republican Senate margin of majority deducting Vice-President s vote in the event of a tie 3.What interests me is the likelihood that the United States may finally have a genuine two-party system If it does happen, it will be because the Republicans finally become what Grant planned for them to be 140 years ago - the party of the new Constitution that included the 14th may actually change The Democrats have been the party of Federal executive authority since their founding whenever possible, they have looked to the White House to order the entire country to do what they wanted - i e buy Louisiana, chase slaves, regulate the sale of sick chickens, etc During my lifetime, the notion that that the States who make up the Union have equal sovereignty suffered the same fate as Grant s reputation as President It ceased being taught in any law or other ty pe of school, and the presumption of absolute Federal authority became universal Now, to my delight and surprise, the idea equal sovereignties and rights of citizenship for the States and the Union has revived People, even judges, have read the 10th Amendment and understand the meaning of its plain language We shall see. I recently connected a turntable to my professional sound system with equalizers, subwoofers, and running two 1700 watt power amps I have a collection of several hundred vintage vinyl records from the 60s on I was amazed anew at how full and involving the analog sound is You can hear the wood tones in the guitar of George Benson It makes you feel like lying down and just listening to the music, or dancing That just doesn t happen with CD s or digital content The digital sound algorithms leave out some of the feeling and nuance of the sound Boosting the bass does nothing but cover the lack of content in the other registers Also, they vinyl has lasted for 50 years with ex cellent quality The art on the covers is fascinating Meanwhile, my cd s have dissolved, the cases broken, and been transferred to hard drive and lacks the same fidelity. High drama in the S P Like a Dumas or L Amour n novel. who else writes adventure like this. monday change -30 tues change -26 wed change 35 thur change 36 fri change -20 prev week change -40.Perhaps this explains the movement up in Vix It s like a boxing match in the final round, or a tennis rally in doubles with all 4 players at net blasting at each other What other sport situation. A very interesting article reminding us that we can estimate the standard deviation of most of our data as the range 4 or b-a 4 where b is the highest and a is the lowest obse ration. This leads to many interesting augmentations You can quickly calculate the significance of a result by 4u x n to 1 2 range. I was led to this result by a very interesting 1980 Box on evolutionary manufacturing operations I was amazed that the authors were so clear and precise about the statistics, but then I saw that the author was Box and Draper, considered two of the world s leading statisticians.
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